News #128 - WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 35)

The full-month figures for August highlight what appears to be a structural change of outbound air cargo trade flows from China and Hong Kong (China/HK). There is a clear shift from "China/HK to USA" markets to "China/HK to Europe" markets, as the impacts of this year’s new US trade and tariff policies continue to reverberate around the world.

According to the latest figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, China/HK to USA volumes in August were flat compared with the previous month, but tonnages were down by -5%, year on year (YoY). In comparison, China/HK to Europe volumes were slightly down (-1%), month on month (MoM), but YoY volumes were up by +11%.

Those figures back up anecdotal reports from multiple sources of freighter capacity being shifted from China/HK-US markets to other markets, and particularly to China/HK-Europe destinations, in response to the changes in US ‘de minimis’ rules for China/HK, and higher tariffs. On the pricing side, China/HK to USA spot rates rebounded slightly from their levels in July, rising +5%, month on month (MoM), although YoY they are down -9%. China/HK to Europe spot rates, meanwhile, slipped back by -3%, MoM, but were stable YoY.

On a worldwide basis, overall tonnages in August were -3% lower compared with July and +3% higher compared with August last year, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Worldwide average rates in August were at the same level as in July, but -3% lower versus August last year.

Within those worldwide August figures, there were MoM declines in tonnages from all the main world regions except Central & South America (CSA), which recorded a +2% MoM increase in tonnages. The biggest decline came from Europe origins with a -8% MoM drop in volumes, followed by -4% from North America and -3% from Middle East & South Asia (MESA). Volumes from both Asia Pacific and Africa recorded -2% MoM decreases.

Compared with last year, tonnages in August from Europe, North America and MESA origins were all flat, YoY, but there were YoY increases of +7% from Asia Pacific origins and +3% from CSA.

Demand continues to grow versus last year, while rates are under pressure

It’s worth noting that despite the considerable geopolitical and trade uncertainty and volatility this year, worldwide chargeable weight, and tonnages from Asia Pacific origins specifically, have continued to show YoY growth in every calendar month throughout 2025, continuing a pattern of worldwide demand growth seen in 2024, although at a much slower pace. On a year-to-date (YtD) basis, volumes increased +3% worldwide and +7% for ex-Asia Pacific, YoY, whereas in the same period last year, the YtD growth stood at +12% and +18%, respectively.

However, the picture for rates is different: whereas average worldwide rates and rates from Asia Pacific origins continued to record YoY growth each month this year until April, since May average worldwide rates and rates from Asia Pacific origins have declined, YoY, each month, with August at -3% and -4%, YoY, respectively. Still, on a YtD basis, average rates this year are slightly higher (+1%) than last year for worldwide and Asia Pacific origins.

Although the picture for US import tariffs has become clearer in recent months for many countries, particularly those that have negotiated new terms with the US, two major new US announcements in recent weeks seem likely to have significant implications for air cargo flows in the coming weeks and months: the imposition of 50% tariffs on US imports from India, and the removal of US ‘de minimis’ exemptions for imports from all countries, not just imports from China and Hong Kong.

Source: WorldACD weekly report.

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