The termination of de minimis exemptions for low-value shipments from China to the U.S. is poised to significantly disrupt e-commerce volumes that have long been a cornerstone of the global air freight market.
According to a May 2 report from freight market data provider Xeneta, e-commerce represents approximately 50% of all air cargo shipments between China and the U.S., and 6% of global air cargo volumes. However, the U.S.'s decision to end de minimis exemptions for Chinese shipments as of May 2 has triggered substantial concerns for the sector.
Notably, Chinese e-commerce giant Temu has already ceased the sale of goods shipped from China to U.S. customers. Temu previously relied heavily on de minimis exemptions to ship millions of packages into the U.S. daily.
"If shippers can’t sell their goods because of tariffs, that’s bad news for the macroeconomic picture and the need for airfreight," stated Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, who cautioned supply chain stakeholders to brace themselves for "a logistical mess" in the coming weeks and months.
Evolving Market Dynamics and Early Impacts
The effects of tariffs were already evident in April 2025. While global air cargo demand increased by 4% year-over-year, this was a significant slowdown compared to the double-digit growth observed monthly from April to December 2024.
Spot rates for airfreight from Southeast Asia to North America surged by 13% month-over-month in the first half of April. This spike was fueled by a temporary rush to expedite shipments before the tariffs, announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, took effect. However, this demand quickly receded in the latter half of the month.
Challenges for the Traditional Air Freight Market
Xeneta projects that the traditional air freight market will face significant challenges in offsetting the anticipated decline in e-commerce volumes resulting from the end of de minimis for Chinese shipments.
While the adjustments may lead to positive developments, such as network realignments and increased air freight capacity for shippers, sustaining these benefits requires viable trading conditions. “They will still need viable trading conditions to enjoy the benefit of this opportunity,” van de Wouw noted.
Uncertainty and the Road Ahead
Van de Wouw acknowledged the difficulties posed by these developments, remarking, "This may be a year when we grow weary of seeing the word ‘unprecedented’ in market performance statements."
The broader economic outlook remains uncertain and will depend on the duration and resolution of current trade disruptions. As van de Wouw put it, "The macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts and what will be at the end of it, but the outlook currently looks quite daunting."
Source: https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/41718-tariffs-end-to-de-minimis-create-daunting-outlook-for-air-freight
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