Housing and automotive demand continues to lag as carrier exits accelerate
The latest State of Freight webinar by FreightWaves painted a sobering picture of an industry struggling to gain momentum as summer winds down. Founder and CEO Craig Fuller, alongside Head of Freight Market Intelligence Zach Strickland, highlighted persistent challenges ranging from weak demand and macroeconomic uncertainty to structural imbalances. Below are five key insights:
Strickland noted that national truckload volumes are down 14–15% year-over-year, falling below even 2019 levels.
“A lot of shippers are still facing uncertainty—not only in securing raw inputs and managing procurement strategies, but also in forecasting consumer behavior downstream,” Strickland explained. “There’s still this overarching sense of, ‘We don’t know where the economy is headed.’”
Despite seasonal catalysts such as back-to-school shipments and hurricane preparedness, freight volumes show little evidence of a rebound.
“This is not the freight market we had hoped for. But it is the freight market we have,” Fuller remarked.
The divergence in consumer spending is becoming more pronounced. Retailers with strong grocery and household staples are holding steady, while discretionary goods continue to falter.
“If you’re a big-box retailer with strong grocery sales, you’re probably doing okay,” Fuller said. “But categories tied to discretionary spending are struggling. Restaurant closures and weak housing turnover are compounding the pressure.”
Both housing and automotive remain significant drags on freight demand. Fuller estimated that as much as 20% of trucking freight is tied to housing activity.
“Without a housing recovery, it’s difficult to envision a meaningful freight rebound,” he emphasized.
The automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle (EV) segment, is also showing signs of stress. Fuller pointed out shifting U.S. policy priorities:
“One of the core theses of the Biden administration was that EVs would replace internal combustion engines, with significant investment aimed at electrification and decarbonization. That thesis has shifted. The Trump administration appears far more inclined toward a multi-platform energy strategy.”
Tender rejection rates are rising, not due to stronger demand but because of carriers exiting the market.
“The Outbound Tender Rejection Index is actually up year-over-year and significantly higher than in 2019,” Strickland said. “The difference is, today’s higher rates are being driven by carriers shutting down rather than freight surging.”
He added that closures and bankruptcies, such as the recent collapse of Carroll Fulmer, will likely continue to reshape the market.
Fuller described the current environment as a “range-bound” cycle, where both rates and volumes remain stuck without clear momentum toward recovery.
Across industries, executives are responding to uncertainty by deferring investments, freezing hiring, and prioritizing cost efficiency.
“It’s the uncertainty factor,” Fuller explained. “When you don’t know what direction the economy is headed, the instinct is to pause. And once you accept that conditions might worsen, businesses move from holding steady to actively cutting back—whether in workforce or capital investment.”
This cautious stance has contributed to strong short-term earnings, as companies boost margins by reducing expenses. However, Fuller cautioned that this strategy comes at the expense of long-term growth.
Source: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/state-of-freight-for-august-market-outlook-remains-murky
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