International air cargo spot rates have continued to rise into the first week of December, with a further +3% week-on-week (WoW) increase, thanks mainly to rate increases from Africa, Asia Pacific, and Europe origins, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.
Average global spot rates rose to US$3.01 per kilo in week 49 (1 to 7 December), led by a +11% WoW rise from Africa origins, a +6% increase from Europe, and a +4% WoW increase from Asia Pacific origins. But spot prices from Central & South America (CSA) dropped by -7%, WoW, mainly because of the end of the cherry air export season from Chile, from where cherry exports – mainly to China – had driven up rates in recent weeks.
Compared with last year, worldwide spot rates are down by an average of -6%, year on year (YoY), with significant YoY declines from all the main origin regions apart from Africa.
Asia Pacific rates surge
There has been a surge in spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to various markets in the last six weeks that continued in week 49 – including on the China to US market which has had such a turbulent year.
Air cargo spot rates from China to the US rose again in week 49 to their highest level this year, increasing by a further +8% to $6.82 per kilo, slightly above last year’s level, based on the more than 500,000 transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. For the wider Asia Pacific to the US market, spot rates in week 49 increased by an average of +6%, WoW, to $6.32 per kilo, mainly driven by those rate rises from China and a big spike in spot rates from Japan (+26%, WoW).
Meanwhile, for Asia Pacific to Europe markets, average spot rates increased by a similar +5%, WoW, to $4.65 per kilo, mainly driven by rate rises from Japan and Southeast Asia origin countries Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
Volumes in week 49 were flat, WoW, for Asia Pacific to the US, with tonnages from China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea well up on their levels of the previous week, but with volumes from Thailand and Malaysia significantly down (-8%, WoW). Overall volumes from Asia Pacific remain +6% higher than last year, for the third week in a row.
Volumes were slightly up for Asia Pacific to Europe (+1%, WoW) with mainly Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia volumes up, and tonnages ex-Thailand down. Overall volumes for Asia Pacific to Europe are +7% higher than last year.
Thanksgiving recovery
On a worldwide basis, tonnages edged up slightly (+1%) from week 48 to week 49 – despite a small drop (-1%, WoW) in volumes from Asia Pacific origins which, as usual, have been the biggest driver of the end-of-year ramp-up of demand and pricing, even if this year’s ‘peak season’ has been less spiky than some. However, the small worldwide WoW increase in week 49 was almost entirely driven by the recovery of US tonnages from the effects of Thanksgiving the previous week: tonnages from North America were up +15%, WoW, after falling by -15% in week 48. Without that recovery in US traffic, worldwide volumes would have been flat instead of +1%.
Nevertheless, it is important to note that global tonnages are around +5% higher than this time last year, with big YoY growth from Asia Pacific (+9%), CSA (+8%), Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +6%) and North America (+4%) origins.
India to US recovery
On the whole, this year’s patterns in week 49 and previous recent weeks are broadly similar to those last year on a high-level, global perspective, although there have obviously been some big changes to certain markets – particularly US inbound demand patterns.
Volumes ex-India to the US seem to be performing well again, despite higher US import tariffs on goods from India imposed several months ago that initially led to a slump in India to US tonnages. Tonnages ex-India to the US have been relatively stable in the last weeks, but they have been higher than the equivalent weeks last year for the past five weeks in a row.
Source: WorldACD
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