Worldwide air cargo tonnages in November continued their year-on-year (YoY) growth pattern with a +5% increase, slightly widening the YoY growth from the +4% recorded in October and September, indicating solid YoY growth in Q4 so far.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, that growth was led, in percentage terms, by YoY increases in traffic from Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +11%), Asia Pacific (+8%), and Central & South America (CSA, +6%) origins, although in absolute terms the biggest factor was the YoY increase in cargo from Asia Pacific origins.
A month-on-month (MoM) comparison shows a +3% higher average worldwide volume per week in November compared with October, with Asia Pacific (+5%) and CSA (+6%) the two origin regions showing significant MoM growth, but also Middle East & South Asia (+3%) and Africa (+2%) are up, while there were slight decreases from North America (-2%), and Europe (-1%).
Southeast Asia to US boom
Looking specifically at the key Asia Pacific origin markets, further analysis by WorldACD – based on the more than two million monthly transactions covered by its data – reveals a mixed picture characterized by the contrasting performances of key markets to the US and to Europe. For example, tonnages from Asia Pacific to the US were up by around +6%, YoY, in November, but most of that was generated by growth from Southeast Asia origins to the US, whereas there were decreases from China & Hong Kong (CN/HK), Japan, and South Korea to the US.
Combined tonnages from China & Hong Kong to the US in November were down, YoY, by -8%, with China to US volumes down by -5% and Hong Kong to US chargeable weight dropping by -14%, whereas from Southeast Asia, tonnages were up by around +42%, YoY, to the US. That reflects a clear pattern among US importers to source products from alternative production markets in Asia in response to increases in tariffs on US imports from China and the removal of ‘de minimis’ exemptions.
Contrasting US vs Europe patterns
But equally of interest is the comparison between the patterns of traffic to Europe compared with that to the US. For example, combined tonnages from CN/HK to Europe were up by +8% in November, YoY, directly contrasting with the -8% drop from CN/HK to the US. And separate figures for China and Hong Kong show similar patterns, with China exports to Europe up more than +5% in November, contrasting with the -5% drop in tonnages from China to the USA. And from Hong Kong to Europe, tonnages were up by +14%, compared with the -14% drop from Hong Kong to the US.
These figures neatly reflect the shift in air cargo tonnages and capacity from China and Hong Kong to Europe markets rather than to US markets. And year-to-date (YtD) figures for the first 11 months also clearly illustrate that pattern, with CN/HK tonnages to the US up down by -7%, whereas volumes from CN/HK to Europe are up by +8%, YoY.
Year-to-Date tonnages from Southeast Asia to the US are up by +27%, whereas to Europe they’re down by -5%, also highlighting a strong contrast in the performance of those major markets this year.
Rates continued to rise
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates in November stood at US$2.65 per kilo – based on a mix of spot rates and contract rates – and were up by +7% compared with October’s levels, a higher MoM increase than the +5% this time last year. The biggest MoM percentage increases in average rates were from CSA (+9%) and from Asia Pacific (+8%) origins.
And the patterns were similar for spot rates, with a +7% MoM rise to $2.87 per kilo led by MoM increases from CSA (+10%), Asia Pacific (+9%), and Europe (+9%). However, overall global average spot rates were -5% below their level last November, with spot rates down, YoY, from all the major origin regions apart from Africa (+6%, YoY), with the biggest deficit being from MESA origins, where spot prices in November were -26% lower than their elevated level this time last year.
On a Year-to-Date basis, worldwide average rates of $2.45 per kilo were almost exactly the same as last year’s equivalent ($2.46) for the first 11 months of the year.
Week 48 trends
Looking specifically at the last full week of November, volumes in week 48 (24 to 30 November) dipped by -3%, WoW, mostly due to the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, as volumes ex-North America dropped by -15%, WoW. Excluding the impact of this drop in volumes ex-North America, overall volumes from other origin regions decreased by -1%, WoW, reflecting a slight weakening from MESA (-2%), CSA (-2%), and Europe (-1%), while Asia Pacific volumes stayed almost flat.
Average worldwide rates increased again by +1% WoW, similar to the trends of previous recent weeks, and as is typical for this period of the year, while the YoY gap also remained more or less stable (at -4%). Within these patterns, average worldwide spot rates increased further in week 48, by +3% WoW, to $2.96 per kilo, with increases from MESA (+3%), and +2% increases from Asia Pacific, Europe, and CSA origins partially offset by WoW declines from North America (-11%) and Africa (-4%), taking average worldwide spot rates -6% below their level in the equivalent week last year.
Source: WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo News
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