DHL is optimistic for the first quarter of 2025 with the expectation that airfreight volumes will continue to trend upwards.
In response to a question by Air Cargo News on first quarter predictions for airfreight during a DHL webinar, Tim Robertson, chief executive Americas, DHL Global Forwarding, said no major changes are expected following the anticipated strong fourth quarter.
“I think nothing dramatic in terms of trend shift for Q1 from an airfreight perspective,” Robertson said during the DHL Peak Season webinar on Friday October 4.
Third-quarter airfreight volumes out of Asia Pacific increased this year compared to the third quarter of 2023, plus much of that air cargo capacity is already secured by e-commerce shippers. Further, post-Golden Week in China DHL expects an increase in airfreight demand and for this to continue.
He explained: “(In) Q3 we saw some mid-single digit increases in airfreight over Q3 of 2023. We do anticipate that post Golden Week we’re going to see a nice run up in volumes, so we should anticipate to see the volume increase. The environment is such that that trend should continue in the first quarter of next year.
“Asia exports continue to be healthy. China Plus One continues to support strong volumes out of Thailand, Vietnam, India and we do anticipate that will continue in the first quarter.”
Strike strife
DHL also believes that there may be increased interest in airfreight from shippers as a result of the disruption from what turned out to be a relatively short strike at US East and Gulf Coast container ports.
Following the start of the strike, which lasted from October 2-4, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and US Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a temporary agreement on wages and agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15 next year. Of course, if further industrial action takes place beyond this date then it will happen during the quieter season beyond the fourth quarter peak.
That said, typically each day of a port shutdown leads to one week of disruption, said Robertson.
“While the disruption has been relatively short-lived we are going to see a ripple effect that carries into the fourth quarter. It’s well documented that every day of shutdown, whether it be an east coast or west coast port, typically leads to a one week backlog or a week to clear.
“So best case scenario here we’re looking at a minimum of three weeks for those logistics chains to recover here in the US.”
DHL customers have been advised to bring forward inventory shipping dates to prepare for potential disruption ahead of the peak, and Robertson said importers are now assessing whether this action tides them over for the next four-six weeks or whether there will “be a need to utilise faster transportation – consolidated airfreight, time definite express services”.
Robertson said while smaller and mid-size retailers are seeking speedy solutions, larger retail companies that are better able to finance front-loading shipments are likely to be in a secure position.
Although another factor to take into account when looking at supply chain flows is that ships were diverted to US west coast ports to avoid the impact of the US east coast ports strike, but these west coast ports were already experiencing congestion and extended dwell times, he added.
DHL predicts that export bookings made the week ending Sunday 6 October are likely not going to sail for another three to four weeks.
“We anticipated and we already see an increase in expedited solutions on the export side and I fully expect that’s going to continue into Q4, not just into Asia, but into Europe and also into Latin America.”
He warned it is important not to “underestimate the port strike impact on exports flows out of the US and Canada this peak”.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/dhl-optimistic-for-first-quarter-2025-airfreight-demand/
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