The Chinese airfreight market is shifting away from the US in favour of Europe as a result of Washington’s imposition of new trade and tariff policies, according to WorldACD.
The latest figures from the data provider show that in August, cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US were down 5% year on year.
In contrast, volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe increased by 11% on last year’s levels during the month.
"The full-month figures for August highlight what appears to be a structural change of outbound air cargo trade flows from China and Hong Kong," WorldACD said in its monthly market round-up.
"Those figures back up anecdotal reports from multiple sources of freighter capacity being shifted from China/HK-US markets to other markets, and particularly to China/HK-Europe destinations, in response to the changes in US ‘de minimis’ rules for China/HK, and higher tariffs."
On a global basis, air cargo tonnages in August increased by 3% year on year, while worldwide rates were 3% down on a year ago.
"Compared with last year, tonnages in August from Europe, North America and Middle East/South Asia (MESA) origins were all flat year on year, but there were year on year increases of 7% from Asia Pacific origins and 3% from Central and South America," WorldACD said.
Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to the US are down 9% compared with last year, while to Europe prices are stable compared with a year ago.
"It’s worth noting that despite the considerable geopolitical and trade uncertainty and volatility this year, worldwide chargeable weight and tonnages from Asia Pacific origins specifically, have continued to show year-on-year growth in every calendar month throughout 2025, continuing a pattern of worldwide demand growth seen in 2024, although at a much slower pace.
"On a year-to-date basis, volumes increased 3% worldwide and 7% for ex-Asia Pacific year on year, whereas in the same period last year, the year-to-date growth stood at 12% and 18%, respectively."
While demand has continued to rise this year, rates have been trending downwards since May, although for the year to date, prices are up 1% on last year, thanks to improvements in the opening months.
Looking ahead, trade with the US is expected to continue to change as the year progresses.
"Although the picture for US import tariffs has become clearer in recent months for many countries, particularly those that have negotiated new terms with the US, two major new US announcements in recent weeks seem likely to have significant implications for air cargo flows in the coming weeks and months: the imposition of 50% tariffs on US imports from India, and the removal of US ‘de minimis’ exemptions for imports from all countries, not just imports from China and Hong Kong," the anaylst said.
source: https://www.aircargonews.net/supply-chains/chinese-airfreight-market-faces-structural-change/1080614.article
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