News #81 - Air cargo demand growth slows but October is a ‘whole new ball game’

04.10.2024

Air cargo demand growth slowed in September but there is an expectation that US port strikes will put extra pressure on an already busy market.

The latest figures from data provider Xeneta show that air cargo demand increased by 9% year on year in September, a strong performance but down on the double-digit percentage increases recorded across the preceding 10 months.

Meanwhile, capacity increased by 3% – its lowest level of the year – and the dynamic load factor improved by three percentage points to 60%. Average airfreight rates were up 26% year on year to $2.71 per kg.

Xeneta said the growth slowdown reflected a pick up in demand this time last year, but added that performance during the month was still strong.

“The latest monthly volumes, however, were sustained by persistent e-commerce demand, ocean-to-air shift due to container shipping disruptions, typhoon disruptions, and a cargo rush ahead of China’s Golden Week holidays (1-7 October).”

Meanwhile, the slowdown in capacity additions reflected airlines beginning their flight schedule adjustments in preparation for winter.

Xeneta expects a 20% reduction in cargo capacity across the Atlantic this winter, to reflect lower passenger demand.

Looking ahead

In the coming months, rates are expected to rise quickly due to the peak season combined with strikes at US East Coast ports that could have a huge impact on supply chains.

“September is already old news. October is a whole new ballgame,” said Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw.

“We could see rates rising very quickly on some trade lanes because of the fear-of-missing-out effect as air cargo capacity leaves the market for the winter, US port workers go on strike, and conflict is escalating in the Middle East, potentially bringing further Red Sea disruption for ocean freight.”

He added that supply chains could take four-six weeks to recover from just a one-week US ports strike, which would mean disruption continuing into November.

“It’s a difficult situation. Covid was worse but this is an accumulation of many events and things can change very quickly,” he said.

Van de Wouw said that airlines and forwarders would now face the difficult decision of whether to capitalise on the spot market or stay loyal to customers.

“The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is not fantastic, particularly as it impacts the general freight market,” he said. “That may make the current volatility and opportunities for rate increases very tempting for carriers. We are already picking up signals that peak surcharges are being accepted by forwarders and shippers because the capacity providers clearly have the upper hand.

“The rules that have been agreed upon mean there’s less room for the temptation of large rate increases during a hot peak. But we do see a piece of the market where you’ve got to ‘pay to play’ and that could become a potential ‘wild west’. Shippers or forwarders may end up there due to unforeseen demand and it could be an expensive game.”