News #116 - WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends 2025 – week 23

15.06.2025

China to US tonnages and rates weaken again

After rebounding in the latter part of May, air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the US dropped back sharply in the first full week of June, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, with spot rates also further significantly weakening on that lane on a week-on-week (WoW) and year-on-year (YoY) basis.

Flown chargeable weight from China and Hong Kong (CN/HK) to the US dropped by -10%, WoW, in week 23 (2 to 8 June), taking tonnages on that lane -19% below their level in the equivalent week last year, with spot rates down by -5%, WoW, and by -17% YoY. This significant decrease in both tonnages and rates ex-CN/HK to the US followed a short recovery during the previous three weeks after the most-recent set of US import tariffs on CN/HK-made goods was paused. With that pause in tariffs remaining in place for now, this latest slump in the CN/HK to US market in week 23 suggests that last month’s rebound was a temporary rather than structural recovery, linked to delayed volumes ‘catching up’ following the suspension of the punishingly high tariffs that had been imposed in April.

The weakening of the China to US market was also a significant factor in an overall -3% drop in worldwide air cargo tonnages in week 23, along with the impact of various major holidays around the world, taking overall volumes -2% lower, YoY, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

The currently hugely volatile China to US market was the main factor in a -7% WoW fall in overall tonnages from China in week 23, mainly from southern China origin airports where e-commerce traffic accounts for a large proportion of air export volumes. That contributed to a -4% WoW decrease in tonnages from Asia Pacific origins as a whole, although there was also a -6% WoW fall ex-Southeast Asia, largely driven by Eid Al-Adha holidays (5-8 June), especially from countries such as Malaysia (-14%) and Indonesia (-10%). Volumes ex-South Korea were also lower (-6%) due to the country’s Memorial Day on 6 June.

China to Europe tonnages drop

MMeanwhile, following increases in recent weeks, tonnages from mainland China origins to Europe decreased (-5%, WoW) in week 23, although Hong Kong to Europe tonnages showed a slight positive development (+2%, WoW). But volumes to Europe in week 23 were significantly down (-16%, WoW) from South Korea (linked to Memorial Day on 6 June) – and from Malaysia (-26%) and Indonesia (-24%) related to the Eid holiday.

Other factors in the overall worldwide decline in tonnages in week 23 included falling outbound tonnages from Europe (-4%) and Middle East & South Asia (MESA, -8%), with Europe traffic impacted by the ‘Pentecost’ holiday (8-9 June), while Eid was also a major factor in the fall in MESA volumes – especially intra-MESA traffic (-26%) and MESA to Africa flows (-17%). These tonnage declines were only partly offset by a +8% WoW rebound in ex-North America traffic – from its depleted levels the previous week related to Memorial Day in the US (26 May).

Relatively stable pricing

On the pricing side, worldwide rates – based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates – were relatively stable in week 23, rising just +1% to US$2.44 a kilo, exactly their level this time last year, with spot rates edging up +2%, WoW, to $2.63 per kilo. Compared with week 23 last year, worldwide average spot rates are +1% higher, with the biggest YoY change coming from MESA origins, where spot prices are currently -16% below their inflated levels this time last year.

On a WoW comparison, one of the biggest shifts in pricing was a -12% fall in spot rates from Hong Kong to the US. That market, which has been heavily reliant on e-commerce traffic in recent years, has been particularly affected by the recent changes to US ‘de minimis’ rules for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong – which continue to face much higher import charges and processing costs since 2 May.