The second quarter of 2025 has brought significant disruptions to global freight markets, with U.S. trade policies intensifying volatility in both ocean and air cargo sectors. European road hauliers, situated at the final leg of global supply chains, have been particularly impacted, facing unpredictable port traffic, fluctuating airport volumes, and limited visibility on future demand, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti).
New tariffs, fluctuating capacity strategies, and a fragile global economic backdrop have created a reactive environment across supply chains. Ti Insight’s Ocean and Air Freight Rate Trackers for Q2 2025 reveal that short-term adjustments to volumes and rates are dominating the freight landscape, leaving long-term stability elusive.
Ocean Freight: Stabilization Amid Weak Demand
The global ocean freight market showed signs of stabilization in Q2 2025, but demand remains subdued. Ti Insight’s Global Headhaul Index registered 138.1 in May 2025, a drop of 82.3 points since February and 73.2 points year-on-year. The steep decline, attributed to overcapacity and inventory corrections in late 2024, has slowed, with marginal decreases of -1.0% and -0.5% recorded in April and May, respectively.
Carriers have responded to persistent overcapacity by employing strategies such as blank sailings and service rotations to create artificial scarcity and sustain rates. This tactical intervention has provided temporary rate stability but not long-term equilibrium.
Trade tensions continue to cloud the outlook. A proposed 50% blanket tariff on all EU imports to the U.S., set to take effect on June 1, has raised concerns among shippers. Ti warns that such measures could lead to blank sailings and booking slowdowns on transatlantic routes as businesses brace for potential EU retaliation.
In contrast, a short-term surge in ocean bookings followed a U.S.–China truce, with volumes increasing by 275% as shippers rushed to move goods before any reversal. However, this spike did little to counterbalance the broader trend of weak demand, particularly in Europe, where restocking is occurring at a cautious pace.
Ti forecasts lower volatility in Q3 2025 but warns that new trade actions or policy reversals could quickly disrupt any perceived calm, particularly given ongoing realignments in transatlantic and transpacific trade.
Air Freight: Rates Decline Amid Policy Shifts
Headhaul air freight rates fell by 5.9% month-on-month in Q2 2025, dropping from $2.87/kg in April to $2.70/kg in May. Backhaul rates also declined, falling 4.1% to $2.28/kg. Despite these decreases, headhaul rates remain 44.4% higher than Q2 2024 levels.
The removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption for low-value imports in May triggered an immediate decline in air freight demand from China. However, a bilateral agreement later in the month spurred a 19% week-on-week rebound, stabilizing spot rates near $4/kg.
Asia–Europe routes experienced mixed trends. Exports from China to Europe rose by 11% in mid-May, and shipments from Hong Kong increased by 9%. Despite this growth, rates on China–Europe lanes fell by 5% to $3.71/kg, while Hong Kong–Europe rates edged up by 2% to $4.39/kg.
Capacity constraints continue to shape the market. Aircraft delivery delays and reliance on passenger belly hold space have limited flexibility, prompting carriers to redirect capacity toward higher-yield routes, such as Southeast Asia–U.S., ahead of a reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects a 5.2% decline in global air cargo yields for 2025, citing protectionist trade policies and shifting sourcing strategies.
Implications for European Road Hauliers
The volatility in air and ocean freight markets poses ongoing challenges for European road hauliers. Planning airport pickups and deliveries has become increasingly difficult due to uneven regional demand and short-term volume spikes, particularly in e-commerce and electronics. Inland haulage requirements are expected to surge, while backhaul flows from Europe to Asia remain weak.
As the global freight market adjusts to these challenges, European hauliers will need to remain agile and responsive to shifting demand patterns, balancing short-term disruptions with long-term strategic planning.
Source: https://trans.info/en/ti-q2-tariffs-impact-412342
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