Worldwide air cargo tonnages are on track for +4% full-year growth in 2025, after chargeable weight in October recorded another +4% year-on-year (YoY) increase, driven by +9% YoY growth from Asia Pacific origins, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
Analysis this week by WorldACD indicates that for the first 10 months of 2025, average worldwide air cargo tonnages were +4% higher than in the equivalent months last year, with Asia Pacific origins recording a +7% YoY increase for the year to date (YtD).
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates for the first 10 months of this year were more or less equivalent to their level last year, even though the totals for each month have been in deficit, YoY, since May.
October month-on-month increase of +8%
In what is normally a key peak-season month, volumes in October rebounded with a +8% increase compared with September, thanks to strong month-on-month (MoM) increases from North America (+11%, MoM), Central & South America (+11%), Europe (+10%), Asia Pacific (+8%), and Africa (+7%), with tonnages from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) flat.
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates of US$2.48 per kilo, based on a mix of spot and contract rates, edged upwards by +1%, MoM, thanks largely to a +3% MoM rise from Asia Pacific origins. But average rates worldwide (-5%, YoY), and from Asia Pacific origins (-6%, YoY), were below their level last October. Europe was the only major origin region to record any YoY increase in average rates in October (+1%).
There were similar patterns for both spot rates and contract rates, with worldwide average spot rates down by -4%, YoY. Average spot rates from Europe origins of $2.17 per kilo were flat, YoY, but there were significant decreases from MESA (-27%, YoY) from their elevated levels last year, and from Asia Pacific (-7%) and North America (-3%).
Similar patterns to October 2024
Compared with last October, October 2025 is showing some very similar patterns, with both months recording a +8% MoM increase in worldwide tonnages and a +1% rise in average global rates. And the MoM tonnage changes for the six main origin regions are similar in October 2025 to those in October 2024, although this year tonnages from Asia Pacific origins rebounded more strongly (+8%, MoM) than last year (+5%, MoM).
The main difference is that average global rates this October are around -5% lower, YoY, despite tonnages being +4% higher. Factors within those comparisons include lower jet fuel prices this year compared with last year, and a weaker US dollar, although those two factors more or less cancel each other out in terms of their impact on worldwide air cargo rates.
A more-significant factor this year has been the extremely volatile transpacific air cargo market, where the effects of changes in US import tariffs and ‘de minimis’ rules are still playing out. But in general, the diversion of Chinese e-commerce volumes from US markets to other international markets, along with the freighter capacity to transport them, has been a factor in driving down average worldwide rates since April and May, when the higher US import tariffs and de minimis changes started taking effect, despite the YoY increase in tonnages overall.
Week 44 trends
Looking specifically at week 44 (27 October to 2 November), chargeable weight edged downwards by -1%, WoW, despite a +11% rebound from MESA as tonnages bounced back, following Diwali in India. Those increases were wiped out by WoW reductions from CSA (-8%), Europe (-5%), Africa (-3%), and North America (-2%) origins. But compared with last year, tonnages were up by +5%, YoY, chiefly due to +11% higher tonnages from Asia Pacific origins.
Average worldwide rates rose by +2%, WoW, to US$2.58 per kilo, with spot rates rising by a similar percentage to $2.80 per kilo. The biggest WoW increase in spot rates on a regional basis was from North America, where spot prices rose by +11%, WoW. But compared with last year, average worldwide spot rates were down by -3%, YoY, with spot prices from Asia Pacific -5% lower, YoY, and North America the only origin region to record a YoY increase (+4%).
China-US spot rates rebound as YoY tonnage deficit narrows
Looking at this year’s most-volatile market, Asia Pacific to the US, spot rates to the US from China, Hong Kong and Japan rose for the third consecutive week in week 44, although all three remain below their levels this time last year – as they have for the last three months. China to the US spot prices edged up by a further +2% in week 44 (26 October to 4 November), WoW, to $5.59 per kilo, their highest level this year, while Hong Kong to the US and Japan to the US spot prices rose by +5% and +11% respectively, to $5.49 and $6.15 per kilo. But those spot rates are -5%, -12%, and -7%, respectively, below their equivalent levels this time last year, when rates had already started to surge in the lead up to winter holidays including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas.
At the same time, tonnages from Asia Pacific to the US remain up, YoY, in week 44 (+7%, YoY), as they have for most of 2025, including huge YoY increases of around 30-50% from Taiwan (+44%), Vietnam (+32%), Thailand (+37%) Malaysia (+52%), and Singapore (+51%). But interestingly, whereas tonnages from China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea to the US have mostly shown big – often double-digit percentage – decreases compared with last year, those deficits were much smaller in week 44, standing at just -4%, -9%, -2%, and -5%, respectively.
Source: The World ACD
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