The United Nations has released its 2025 review of maritime transport, stressing that global shipping is facing a period of fragility and volatility
More than 80% of the world's merchandise is moved through global shipping.
However, seaborne trade is expected to falter in 2025, pointing towards a period of fragile growth during times of trade volatility.
The UN Trade and Development's new report, Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters, details the risks that global shipping currently faces.
Trade disruptions
Ongoing political tensions, ever-changing tariffs and uncertain shipping lanes are altering how maritime trade works.
Global trade has changed dramatically over the past 12 months, with many businesses moving to localisation and regionalisation rather than relying on suppliers from other countries.
Amid rising tariffs and ongoing conflict, some nations have become unreliable trading partners, meaning companies are pulling away from existing suppliers for fear of disrupted stock.
"Not since the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967 have we witnessed such sustained disruption to the arteries of global commerce," says Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General.
"Ships that once transited the Red Sea in days now sail for weeks around the Cape of Good Hope. Freight rates that were relatively stable for years now swing wildly from month to month. Supply chains we thought were resilient have proven fragile."
The US and other trading partners have been introducing port fees and targeted restrictions on port calls by foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels, which are likely to affect shipping costs and trade routes.
There has been a constant volatility in freight rate since 2024, as disruption in the Red Sea and subsequent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope meant that voyage distances and times were significantly increased.
The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict has significantly put stress on trade in the Strait of Hormuz, with operational risks being a major concern throughout 2025.
Geopolitical tensions over the last year have meant that long-distance rerouting has shown a 6% growth in tonne-miles.
Changing maritime trends
In early May 2025, ship tonnage transit levels were at 70% below the 2023 average. By the end of June, there had not been any significant changes in ship transit patterns through the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, the UNCTAD expects seaborne trade to stall throughout 2025, with only a 0.5% volume rise.
In January 2025, the global fleet reached 112,500 vessels, representing an annual increase of 3.4% – below the annual average of 5.1% over the past 20 years.
As of May 2025, 8% of the active global fleet were designed to run on alternative fuels.
EU carbon emissions pricing is already affecting transport cost structures, as these prices are applicable to shipments to and from European ports.
Ports around the world are facing increased ship waiting times and congestion. From December 2023 to March 2024, average waiting time for developed economies grew from 5.2 hours to 6.4 hours. For developing economies, port waiting time grew from 10.2 hours to 10.9 hours.
UNCTAD expects these gaps to grow, unless significant changes are made.
Strengthening supply chains
Whilst the UNCTAD report paints a relatively bleak picture for shipping, it concludes with a clear focus on how maritime transport can uphold supply chains and increase resilience:
Leverage maritime logistics
International cooperation can manage ever-shifting trade policy measures. Through investments in transport and logistics, larger countries can help bring developing countries into trade flows, bringing in the addition of critical minerals and diversified suppliers.
Plan for disruption
The maritime industry needs to create adaptation strategies to enhance operational flexibility in order to better handle trading disruptions and traffic.
Promote fleet modernisation
Boost maritime sustainability by incentivising fleet renewal in order to meet new environmental requirements. This particularly points towards governments, regulators, shipbuilders, shipowners, providers of ship finance and ship scrappers for action.
Protect the workforce
Governments and organisations need to make sure they're enforcing safe practices to ensure the safety and security of seafarers and the flow of goods across global supply chains. Through implementing proactive and inclusive strategies, companies can address the persistent seafarer shortage and prevent overworking and risk of injury through fatigue. Workforce training and upskilling needs to be facilitated in regards to the safe handling of new materials.
Accelerate decarbonisation
There needs to be a fair energy transition implemented in order to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Viable fuel alternatives need to be developed and deployed with additional investments required.
Measure performance
Ports should assess their performance to identify areas for improvement, as well as implementing automation and digital software to enhance transparency and resilience.
Close collaboration
Active engagement between public and private sector stakeholders is key to navigate risk and resilience.
“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions,” adds Rebeca. “They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability."
By focusing on these areas for improvement, the maritime sector can enjoy significant growth in resilience amid global uncertainty, building on today's challenges to protect its future.
Source: Supply chain digital
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