News #202606 - Diverging demand patterns shape air freight planning

09.02.2026

Calendar-driven tightness and structural growth
Air freight in February often gets reduced to a single narrative: Demand out of Asia compresses ahead of Lunar New Year followed by a rapid decline. This year brings a notable distinction. While Asia is experiencing short-term, calendar‑related tightness, South Asia and South America continue to undergo steady, long-term structural changes. The difference isn’t just operational timing; it’s a fundamental distinction between volatility shaped by the calendar and growth shaped by long-term economic realignment.

Asia’s predictable compression window
Asia-Pacific’s familiar pattern has begun: a short, intense surge of demand in the first half of the month as factories close for Lunar New Year. Shippers compress what is normally four weeks of exports into roughly 12 days. Demand appears to be concentrated in the same time-sensitive sectors that have defined the region’s air market over the past several years: electronics, semiconductors, components for artificial intelligence, crypto-mining hardware, and solar technologies bound for the United States, alongside ecommerce and fast-moving consumer products moving toward Europe.

Capacity is expected to remain tight right up to the February 17 holiday window, then is usually self-correcting. Once factory production halts, outbound demand typically drops faster than airlines reduce schedules. By early March, Asia generally returns to a normalized balance of capacity and demand. This cycle is a predictable seasonal effect, not a structural one.

South America’s transition from export origin to bidirectional hub
Where Asia’s pattern is cyclical, South America’s appears to be undergoing lasting change. The region is shifting from a predominantly export-driven origin toward a bidirectional trade hub. Several forces appear to be moving in the same direction:

Nearshoring and regional manufacturing expansion geared toward U.S. markets
Rising domestic consumption in key economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and the northern Andean states
Growth in direct long-haul freighter services connecting Latin America with Asia and Europe

This month’s conditions reinforce that shift. Although there was a brief slowdown in volumes toward the end of last year, the region is still expected to grow over the long term. Perishable items such as flowers, fruit, and fish remain strong, forming a seasonal baseline that manufactured goods and cross-regional services are building upon. The introduction of new long-haul services, slated for full implementation early this year, suggests growing carrier confidence in sustained two-way trade opportunities rather than solely outbound demand.

Operational constraints—inland transport bottlenecks, customs delays, limited digitalization—still shape how evenly growth materializes. These challenges appear to be driven more by infrastructure frictions than underlying market weakness. Carrier capacity decisions suggest growing confidence in South America as a longer-term growth region, rather than a market driven primarily by seasonal demand.

Underlying demand in India and South Asia remains firm
South Asia presents a different structural pattern. India’s air freight demand for electronics, pharmaceuticals, and high-value goods appears to be transitioning from a premium or emergency option to an increasingly standard one. Supported by steady output in the technology and healthcare sectors and expanding long-haul connectivity across multiple major hubs, demand remains resilient even as other regions soften.

This structural consistency helps explain why congestion persists on certain lanes, despite easing global demand, as these commodities typically require air transport and offer limited flexibility to shift to alternative modes.

Europe’s softness reinforces the split
If Asia is tight for temporary reasons, Europe sits on the opposite end of the spectrum. Increased belly capacity on long-haul passenger flights and subdued manufacturing activity continue to limit Trans-Atlantic rate increases. This persistent softness underscores why Asia’s tightness shouldn’t be interpreted as a global trend. Instead, February’s market signals are a reminder that not all air freight operates under the same demand logic or planning horizon.

Different market cycles are emerging
Overall, February highlights the emergence of two distinct patterns in air freight economies:

Asia’s tactical cycle, shaped by production calendars and predictable holiday closures
South America and South Asia’s strategic cycle, shaped by structural economic change, modal evolution, and long-term carrier investment

These differing approaches affect how planning aligns across regions. In Asia, market conditions tend to favor short-term positioning and advance bookings, while South America and South Asia are increasingly shaped by longer-term trade development, influencing routing options, service availability, and capacity consistency.

Planning ahead
The key issue isn’t whether February causes tighter conditions in Asia—it always does. What’s important is whether shippers are updating their planning strategies to handle calendar‑related fluctuations in some areas and ongoing changes in others. Air freight trends aren’t consistent across the board, and February makes these differences especially noticeable.

India’s modal shift is reshaping air freight demand
India’s air freight sector appears to demonstrate an ongoing structural transformation that is shaping global capacity trends. Air transport has become the standard operational choice for key industries, rather than merely a discretionary upgrade. Developments across South Asia provide insight into why certain regions maintain persistently tight capacity conditions, even as overall global demand declines.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals are rewriting South Asia’s baseline
India’s export mix remains anchored in sectors where air freight is essential: electronics, pharmaceuticals, high-value components, and time-sensitive goods. Growth across major hubs—including Delhi, Bengaluru, and Chennai—reflects a manufacturing environment where speed, compliance, and reliability are integral to product requirements.

These factors help explain why freighter space remains under pressure across South Asia, even as passenger belly capacity continues returning across key international corridors. High-value industries are relying on air as the default mode, not an emergency alternative, creating a structural floor for utilization that does not fluctuate significantly with seasonal cycles.

India’s exports to China reportedly grew 33% between April and November 2025, primarily driven by increased shipments of electronics and pharmaceuticals. This rise underscores how tightly linked the region’s manufacturing ecosystem has become to air-first logistics strategies.

A recently announced U.S.-India trade agreement could add further momentum to these flows. Under terms reported by the U.S. administration but not yet formalized, U.S. tariffs on Indian imports would decrease from 25% to 18%, while India would eliminate tariffs on U.S. products entirely.

Two distinct demand profiles are now developing
India’s trajectory highlights a bifurcation that appears to be becoming more pronounced across the global air market:

Air as essential infrastructure: Certain lanes—including South Asia and parts of East and Southeast Asia—move cargo that is time-sensitive, high-value, and strategically important. These shipments must move quickly, regardless of seasonal softening or broader economic cycles.
Air as optional capacity: Other lanes, including many Trans-Atlantic routes, function as cost-driven channels where demand can shift back to ocean transport when capacity expands or rates fall. This helps explain why regions with restored belly capacity are experiencing persistent oversupply, even as other lanes remain tight.

Identifying the specific “air economy” that governs a given route is crucial for effective planning. Routes designated for essential cargo tend to exhibit consistent patterns and typically remain constrained. In contrast, optional routes fluctuate based on factors such as cost, urgency, and the presence of alternative options.

Two types of air freight demand

Planning ahead
India’s example provides a useful lens into the potential behavior of structurally high-value markets over time. In these corridors, capacity constraints are influenced less by seasonal fluctuations and more by the characteristics of the cargo. For shippers, this necessitates segmenting shipping lanes by cargo criticality rather than just origin-destination pairs.

As February progresses, lanes tied to essential industries are likely to maintain stable volume and sustained utilization, while cost-driven and discretionary lanes may continue to see wider swings in rates and available space.

Notable updates this month
Asia’s tech-weighted demand mix is creating a sharper pre-holiday split than usual
This month, Asia’s outbound exports are mainly focused on technology-related goods like electronics, semiconductor parts, artificial intelligence hardware, crypto-mining equipment, and solar products. This concentration appears to be supporting firm demand even as general cargo volumes ease.

Combined with the compressed pre-Lunar New Year window, this mix suggests short term tightness may be more influenced by sector composition than by volume alone. Monitor how this tech-driven concentration affects early-March capacity normalization.

Europe’s air market continues to soften as belly capacity expands faster than demand
Long-haul passenger schedules continue to add significant lower-deck lift across Europe, but manufacturing output and U.S. import demand remain muted. This widening imbalance continues to reinforce structural oversupply rather than creating short-term volatility. Rates remain under pressure, and the environment may favor shippers that can leverage flexible timing or opportunistic routings. Conditions suggest that even small demand swings could produce more noticeable rate movement than in past seasons.

Asia–Europe flows remain stable despite seasonal front-loading
Even with modest front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year, Asia–Europe lanes continue to show adequate capacity at major origins. Demand remains soft but steady, supported by ecommerce and general cargo flows, with capacity management keeping conditions balanced.

Short-term rate increases may occur as shippers position cargo before factory closures, but historical patterns indicate these effects tend to unwind quickly once operations resume. This stability may offer a brief planning window for shippers with Q2 alignment needs.

South America’s northbound stability is being reinforced by perishables and expanding long-haul lift
The ongoing seasonal demand for flowers, fruits, and fish provides a steady flow of goods moving north from South America. What stands out this month is how this baseline interacts with additional long-haul freighter capacity into both Europe and Asia. Together, these factors may support more consistent two-way flow, even as regional operational challenges persist. This may provide shippers moving mixed cargo profiles with more stable uplift options through the late-Q1 period.

South Asia’s airport-handling pressures point to future capacity shifts
While February demand remains steady, longer-term infrastructure changes—such as extended freighter restrictions at major hubs like Mumbai—are expected to redirect cargo flows later in the year.

This shift could concentrate volumes through Delhi, Bengaluru, and Chennai, tightening freighter availability on certain corridors even as seasonal patterns stay relatively stable. Shippers with recurring South Asia uplift may benefit from diversifying routings or securing early capacity commitments ahead of anticipated handling shifts.

Key takeaways

Book Asia-origin cargo requiring February uplift before factory closures begin mid-month. Pre-Lunar New Year compression continues to be driven by concentrated demand in electronics, artificial intelligence hardware, semiconductors, and ecommerce, creating short, predictable windows of tightness through mid-February.
Take advantage of the late February to early March period for flexible shipments. Once production halts, outbound demand typically drops quickly even if flights are reduced, creating a brief normalization period before activity rebounds in March. Shippers with non-urgent cargo may find more consistent service and rate stability in this post-holiday window.
Leverage continued structural softness on Trans-Atlantic lanes. Expanded belly capacity and muted manufacturing demand are keeping these corridors oversupplied. This environment may offer opportunities to secure favorable pricing or use air transport selectively, without facing the congestion common on Asia-linked corridors.
Plan proactively for South Asia’s consistently tight freighter conditions. Electronics, pharmaceuticals, and other high-value goods continue to rely on air as the default mode, and persistent freighter pressure may require diversified routings or earlier capacity commitments, especially for India-origin shipments.
Expect balanced, stable conditions on Asia–Europe lanes. Even with modest pre-holiday front-loading, capacity remains adequate across major origins, making this corridor a dependable option for shippers balancing speed, cost, and predictability.

Source: https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/feb-2026-freight-market-update/air/