The global manufacturing PMI has fallen below 2023 levels for the first time this year – although some countries in Asia continue to enjoy growth, including India and Thailand.
And a further economic slowdown is expected during Q4, noted Dimerco Express Group in its Asia Pacific freight report, out today.
Nevertheless, airfreight out of Asia is going strong, according to the forwarder.
“The traditional peak season began in mid-October, immediately following China’s Golden Week holiday,” said Kathy Liu, VP global sales and marketing for Dimerco.
“Alongside ecommerce growth, the launch of new electronic goods and products has driven prices upward. Capacity within intra-Asia routes is currently extremely limited, as airlines allocate a greater portion of first-leg allotments to long-haul shipments, due to higher revenue potential. November is anticipated to be the peak month of 2024, particularly for shipments destined for the US and Europe.”
Air demand out of China has risen, with rates to both the US and Europe on the up, said Dimerco – bringing congestion in some airports.
“There is a space backlog from Tianjin to Europe and the US, and it’s advisable to book at least a week in advance to secure your shipment,” warned the forwarder.
From south China, the volume of ecommerce has increased “in anticipation of holidays sales like 11/11, Black Friday and Christmas, resulting in higher rates and limited space”.
It added that large shipments of electronics out of east China have caused some congestion, and bookings need to be made one to two weeks before departure. And out of Hong Kong, “airlines are cancelling their special rates for large-volume cargo as the peak season approaches.”
Flights out of Hong Kong to Singapore and Taipei are particularly busy with ecommerce, it added.
Demand for South Korean semi-conductors has led to space constraints to the US, which Dimerco said would persist through December; and bookings out of the country should be made two weeks in advance.
Manufacturing levels are impacting airfreight throughout Asia. Malaysia has forecast a slow fourth quarter for exports – while Vietnam faces the opposite.
“Peak season in Vietnam is prompting many manufacturing firms to accelerate production to meet Q4 orders, leading to limited space in the coming months,” warned Dimerco. “Additionally, with year-end holidays approaching, airlines are expected to prioritise passenger luggage.”
Singapore also looks busy, it said: “Capacity pressures and higher rates are expected for shipments from Singapore, with space remaining tight throughout Q4. It is advisable to book long-haul shipments at least six to seven days in advance of the cargo-ready date.”
In the Philippines, which saw its manufacturing PMI grow from 51.2 in August to 53.7 in September, the second-highest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Asia after India, air capacity is said to be “stable”. But Dimerco warned that “securing space for long-haul shipments was challenging, due to limited allocations”. It added that carriers were offering ad hoc rates to the US, comparable to express rate levels.
And Thailand is facing a shortage of space for exports to the US.
Dimerco said overall rates out of Asia Pacific to the US were “likely to keep rising”.
“Various factors will continue to put pressure on both available space and pricing. Key influences expected to shape the market throughout Q4 include seasonal trends, with costs typically climbing towards the end of the year as travel shifts away from summer and vacation patterns. The steady growth in ecommerce demand is also a driving force.
“Additional factors such as year-end activity, labour shortages, interest rates, a strong US dollar and elevated global oil prices will play a significant role in determining how rates and capacity evolve to close-out 2024.”
The Mexico air market, it added, was under pressure from Chinese ecommerce and had seen a number of charters from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Zhengzhou into Mexico’s new Felipe Angeles International (NLU) airport.
Dimerco also noted the start of Diwali in India, from tomorrow until 3 November, “which is likely to influence freight movement”.
“As consumer demand surges, there will be increased shipments of goods, such as electronics, apparel, and festive decorations. This heightened demand may tighten air and ocean freight capacity, especially on popular trade routes.
“Additionally, many manufacturing and port workers may temporarily halt operations or reduce workforce availability during the holiday, potentially causing delays.”
Source: https://theloadstar.com/asia-pacific-airfreight-market-on-the-up-despite-manufacturing-slowdown/
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