Global air cargo demand maintained its upward momentum in April 2025, buoyed by seasonal shipping patterns, proactive inventory adjustments in anticipation of tariff changes, and reduced fuel costs. However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) highlighted that evolving trade policies could significantly reshape market dynamics, emphasizing the need for agility among airlines.
According to IATA's latest Air Cargo Market Analysis, total air cargo demand—measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK)—rose 5.8% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of growth. On a month-over-month basis, demand increased 2.3%, building on a 4.4% rise in March, which had been driven by front-loading shipments.
The April growth was attributed to seasonal shipping of fashion and consumer goods ahead of the summer retail cycle and accelerated shipments to beat the May 2, 2025, implementation of changes to the U.S. de minimis threshold. IATA noted that, between April and June, air freight activity traditionally intensifies as businesses prepare for summer demand, with tariff adjustments further stimulating early shipments.
Capacity and Load Factor Performance
Available cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding demand growth. As a result, the cargo load factor (CLF)—the proportion of available capacity utilized—declined slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 43.9%, reflecting the market trend of capacity outpacing demand.
“This marginal dip aligns with broader market dynamics, where capacity expansions have modestly outpaced demand growth,” the report stated.
Sector Outlook and Challenges
IATA Director General Willie Walsh expressed cautious optimism, noting the sector's resilience despite global trade tensions.
“April delivered strong momentum for air cargo, driven by seasonal demand, early shipping activity, and lower jet fuel prices,” Walsh said. “With capacity reaching record levels and yields improving, the outlook is encouraging. However, shifting trade policies, particularly in the U.S., are altering demand patterns and export flows. Airlines must remain agile to navigate these challenges effectively.”
While air cargo growth outpaced global goods trade—which rose 6.5% month-over-month—the global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, signaling expansion for the fourth consecutive month. However, the PMI for new export orders dropped to 47.2, remaining in contraction territory, highlighting ongoing challenges in global trade flows.
Fuel and Cost Trends
Favorable fuel trends supported the sector’s performance. Jet fuel prices fell 21.2% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.
Regional Performance Overview
Regional highlights showed varying levels of growth:
Latin America led with a 10.1% year-on-year increase, driven by robust intra-regional trade.
Asia Pacific carriers followed closely, reporting 10% growth, supported by strong e-commerce activity.
African carriers recorded a 4.7% rise, reflecting moderate growth in key trade lanes.
North American airlines experienced 4.2% growth, with steady demand for high-value goods.
European carriers reported a more modest 2.9% increase, constrained by regional economic conditions.
Middle Eastern airlines saw the slowest growth at 2.3%, impacted by shifts in regional trade flows.
While most international routes posted positive growth, declines were observed in three key corridors: Middle East–Europe, Africa–Asia, and intra-European routes.
Conclusion
April's performance reaffirms the air cargo sector’s critical role in global trade amid evolving market dynamics. As trade policies and global economic conditions continue to shift, adaptability will be paramount for airlines seeking to sustain growth and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Source: https://www.logisticsinsider.in/air-cargo-demand-strengthens-in-april-amid-seasonal-trends-and-tariff-concerns-iata/
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