Bangladesh disruptions contribute to stalling tonnages in late July
Worldwide air cargo tonnages remained flat in the last full week of July, having dropped around -2% the previous week, taking them around -5% below their level at the end of June, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.
There is no clear evidence that the relatively subdued tonnages in the last two full weeks are linked to the IT outages in many countries on 19 July. However, tonnages flown from Bangladesh have been down significantly since mid-July, due to disruptions caused by political protests that led to blackouts of internet services for several days. Tonnages flown from Bangladesh to Europe declined by -29% in week 29, compared with the week before; although volumes bounced back slightly in week 30, regaining +6%, WoW, both weeks are down by around -50%, YoY, from a market that has generally seen some substantial YoY growth in 2024.
Regional data for week 30 (22-28 July) indicates that tonnages fell from four of the six main world regions, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, including declines of -4% from Central & South America and -1% from Asia Pacific, North America and Africa origins. But tonnages rose from Europe (+2%), and Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +1%), making overall worldwide tonnages stable compared with the previous week, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
Compared with last year, worldwide tonnages were up by +6%, YoY, although that compares with an average of +12% in the first half of 2024, a +11% rise in the second quarter, and a +10% increase in June. Combining the figures for weeks 29 and 30 gives a +7% YoY increase, suggesting a possible slowdown in YoY growth in the latter part of July. Compared with the previous two weeks, tonnages were down by -2% in weeks 29 and 30. Preliminary estimates for the full month of July indicate that tonnages were up, YoY, by between +9% and +10%.
Rates remain relatively firm
Based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, global rates slipped slightly (-1%) in week 30; but on a two-week basis they remain stable, compared with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), with a +6% rise from Africa origins and a small (+1%) rise from Asia Pacific and MESA. Compared with last year, rates of $2.52 per kilo are up by +13%, thanks to YoY increases of +55% from MESA and +24% from Asia Pacific, and a +9% rise from Africa origins. And compared with the last pre-Covid equivalent period, average worldwide rates remain significantly higher (+45%, compared with July 2019).
Average spot market rates from Asia Pacific origins to the USA dropped back slightly (-3%) in week 30, while demand also dipped (-2%), but spot rates remain very significantly up, YoY (+62%). Rates from Singapore to the USA have reached some extremely high levels in the last five weeks, rising above $9 per kilo for three of the last four weeks and standing at $9.25 per kilo in week 30 – more than double their equivalent level this time last year.
Meanwhile, spot rates to Europe from Singapore of $3.67 per kilo are up, YoY, by a more-modest +58%. But prices from Vietnam to Europe have remained above $4 per kilo for the last 11 consecutive weeks, standing at $4.80 in week 30 – double their level this time last year and in some cases nearly three times their equivalent level.
With disruptions continuing to container shipping in the Red Sea, average spot prices from MESA origins to Europe also remain more than double their equivalent levels this time last year, holding firm at $3.30 per kilo (+135%, YoY). Spot rates to Europe from Bangladesh ($4.54, +142%), Sri Lanka ($3.95, +183%), India ($3.44, +169%), and Dubai ($2.66, +152%) are among the biggest YoY rises, as demand continues to outstrip capacity and the equivalent levels this time last year.
Source: https://www.worldacd.com/trend-reports/weekly/worldacd-weekly-air-cargo-trends-week-30/
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