According to VNDirect, in the southern market, the new supply of warehouses tends to move to Long An and Dong Nai, while the supply of ready-built factories moves to Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau, which are neighboring provinces of Ho Chi Minh city (HCMC).
According to Euro Monitor and the Vietnam E-commerce Association, Vietnam's e-commerce revenue is expected to reach $39 billion with a compound growth of 25% in the period 2021 - 2026. VNDirect estimates, for every USD 1 billion in e-commerce sales, an additional 92.903 m2 of warehouse space is required. From there, it is expected that more than 2,2 million m2 of warehouse space dedicated to e-commerce will be needed until 2026.
In addition, strong cargo demand and supply chain disruptions also increase the demand for warehouse space to stock goods and minimize future disruptions, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Transportation costs typically account for 45-70% of total supply chain costs, while fixed asset costs (including real estate) account for only 3-6%. Therefore, VNDirect believes that warehouses located near major traffic hubs such as airports and ports with good traffic connections will be strongly sought.
According to CBRE's report, both the Vietnam northern and southern markets recorded a sharp increase in the number of customers asking to rent warehouses, warehouse and factories in the first half of 2022, mainly due to high demand inlogistics industry with the proportion of 34% and 40% respectively.
It is expected that in the next 4 years, a large supply of warehouse and factories will be put into operation in both the north and south. For the northern market, VNDirect expects the new supply to lead the total supply of imports, warehouse and factories to achieve a compound growth rate of 15% and 12,8%, respectively in the period 2022 - 2026. Total supply of warehouse, warehouse and factory will reach 2,5 and 3,7 million m2 respectively by 2026.
For the southern market, the total supply of warehouse, warehouse and factories in 2026 will grow at a CAGR of 13,4% and 16,7% in the period 2022 - 2026. VNDirect also finds the opposite distribution of new supply. While the new supply of warehouse is tending to move to Long An and Dong Nai, the new supply of warehouse and factories tends to move to Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau.
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