Vietnam: Challenges to maintain trade surplus in 2023


The trade surplus of more than 4 billion USD in the first quarter of 2023 is good news for the export and import sector in particular and of the entire economy in general. 

However, behind the trade surplus of goods in the first quarter of 2023 are issues of concern, frank consideration and thorough analysis. 

First, the trade surplus was not due to an increase in exports, but to a larger decrease in import than the other one.

Specifically, exports in the first quarter of 2023 reached over $79,17 billion, reduced 11,9% over the same period in 2022. The declination of exports in the first quarter of 2023 for both domestic economic sectors (down 15,2%) and the FDI sector (down 10,6%). This also shows the "inferior" of the domestic economic sector.

Notably, the decline of exports occurred in many key commodities. Of the 45 key products, there are 33 items with a decrease in export turnover over the same period. In which, there are 4 items with large decrease (over 1 billion USD) including: Phones and components; textile; electronics, computers, components; wood and wood products. Some commodities decreased in export volume such as cement, textile fiber, tea, rubber, coffee...

Some commodities have been reduced in export price such as cashew nut, coffee, pepper, cassava and related products, crude oil... Export’s declination took place in 42/80 major markets, of which a large decrease in 13 markets with over 100 million USD, including: USA, China, Hong Kong, Belgium, Cambodia, Canada, Germany, Mexico...

Meanwhile, imports in the first quarter of 2023 reached 75,1 billion USD, down 14.,7% over the same period in 2022.

Although The decrease in imports is a positive trend, but if it decreases deeply, it will negatively affect domestic production as well as exports in the next cycle. The decrease in imports occurred in both the domestic sector (down 14,1%) and the FDI sector (down 16%). Imports decreased in more than 40 markets, of which 2 import markets decreased by over 1 billion USD, namely China and Korea.

The second is the trade surplus because the FDI sector has increased in both absolute size and surplus rate compared to the same period last year. The trade deficit was completely due to the domestic economic sector. 

Third, Vietnam's large export surplus markets all decreased compared to the same period last year, such as: the US ($1.774 million versus $22.823 million), Germany (US$1.091 million versus $1.268 million), the UK (1.230 million USD versus 1.247 million USD), Hong Kong (1.327 million USD vs 2.130 million USD)…

Analyzing the picture of import and export, Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Phan Van Chinh acknowledged: in the first quarter of 2023, exports of all sectors were in a downward trend. In the context that the world economy continues to face many difficulties, the US and EU economies are forecasted to grow below 1% and likely to have a recession.

Emerging and developing economies recovered more difficult, growth rate slowed. Inflation is still high in many countries, leading to the trend of monetary tightening - interest rates are expected to continue to increase in the first half of the year. For the domestic market, due to the impact of the decline in global economic growth, market fluctuations, policy adjustments of major economies and the increase in trade protectionism of the importing countries, all of which lead to manufacturing and export sectors face many difficulties.

Many economic experts said that the trade balance is forecasted to continue to improve, however, exports will face many common challenges of partner’s markets. Meanwhile, domestic market demand has not increased, inflation tends to increase, affecting economic recovery and development.


Other articles

Contact Us

Booking ALS expert's advice
= "" +en_GB+ "/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v11.0&appId=4278221418901009&autoLogAppEvents=1";