News #121 - Global Logistics Update: July 17, 2025

Tariff Developments: Escalations and Negotiations Continue

President Trump Expands Reciprocal Tariff Proposals

In the latest series of trade announcements, President Trump has proposed new reciprocal duty rates on additional U.S. trade partners:

• Canada: 35%
• European Union: 30%
• Mexico: 30%

It remains unclear whether imports under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be exempt. To date, over two dozen tariff letters have been released, with all proposed tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 1, pending confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.

The tariff policy stipulates that:

• Any retaliatory increase by a partner nation will be matched with an equivalent U.S. tariff increase.
• Transshipped goods used to circumvent tariffs will be subject to the highest applicable rate.

All existing reciprocal tariffs will remain in place until August 1, with the exception of China, whose 10% duty is set to expire on August 12.

U.S.–Indonesia Trade Agreement Announced

On July 15, the U.S. and Indonesia finalized a deal setting a 19% reciprocal tariff, scaling back from the previously proposed 32%.

EU Postpones Retaliatory Measures

In response to the proposed 30% U.S. tariff, the European Union announced a delay in its planned retaliatory tariffs, opting to pursue bilateral trade negotiations through early August.

New Trade Investigations and Tariff Proposals

• Brazil: The USTR initiated a Section 301 investigation into Brazil on July 15, focusing on digital trade policies, tariff frameworks, and anti-corruption measures. A 50% reciprocal tariff has been proposed.
• Vietnam: Announced on July 2, a 20% tariff will be applied, alongside a 40% duty on transshipped goods.
• BRICS Nations: A universal 10% tariff is planned on imports from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and others), in addition to any existing tariffs.
• Pharmaceuticals: A proposed tariff of up to 200% is under consideration, with a one-year grace period for companies to onshore production.
• Copper: A 50% import tariff will take effect August 1 following a Commerce Department national security review.

Ocean Freight Market Overview

Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)

Capacity & Demand

• Demand remains stable but flat through July and August.
• Carriers report 80–90% deployment in July, tapering to 75–86% in August amid persistent overcapacity.
• Congestion in Malaysia and Singapore has caused 3–5 day delays for Southeast Asia–origin services.

Equipment Availability

• Equipment levels are sufficient across most TPEB origins.

Rates

• West Coast: GRIs (General Rate Increases) were implemented by some carriers as of July 15; others extended rates or applied “bullet” spot rates.
• East Coast & Gulf: GRIs and PSSs (Peak Season Surcharges) have been mostly mitigated for the rest of July.

Far East Westbound (FEWB)

Capacity & Demand

• Weekly capacity has increased by 19% MoM, now averaging 306,100 TEUs.
• Week 29 blank sailings led to significant cargo backlogs.
• Peak season demand has exceeded expectations and is likely to extend beyond typical timelines.

Equipment

• Rollovers and strict equipment controls persist.
• Alternative routings via extra loader vessels (e.g., Gemini) may add 2–4 weeks to ETAs.
• OA and PA alliances are limiting bookings through Weeks 31–32.

Rates

• Freight rates remain stable. The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) stands at $2,099/TEU, reflecting slight downward pressure on further GRIs.

External Risk Factors

• Red Sea Security: Renewed Houthi attacks eliminate Red Sea routing as a near-term option.
• U.S.–EU Tariffs: The proposed U.S. tariffs may affect European manufacturing demand but will likely spare consumer goods-focused Asia–Europe trade in the short term.

Trans-Atlantic Westbound (TAWB)

Capacity & Demand

• PSA Antwerp: 8-day dwell times persist.
• Ports in Hamburg, Bremerhaven, and Rotterdam report 3–4 day delays.
• Southern ports (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia) remain heavily congested.
• Export demand from Germany, Benelux, and Spain is increasing.
• Only ~5% of sailings are blanked, indicating market stability.

Equipment

• Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany are experiencing container shortages.
• Portugal is facing imbalance issues.

Rates

• July PSSs have been postponed. Rates are expected to remain stable through Q3.

Indian Subcontinent to North America

Capacity & Demand

• Peak season has begun, with added capacity to the U.S. East Coast.
• Some services are bypassing Charleston to improve schedule reliability.
• West Coast capacity has expanded, partly due to spillover from TPEB lanes.

Rates

• East Coast: GRIs and PSSs were announced but not fully implemented; rates vary significantly based on utilization.
• West Coast: GRIs did not hold; PSSs have declined.
• Pakistan: Continued elevated costs and delays due to India–Pakistan routing constraints.

Air Freight Update – Week 27 (June 30–July 6, 2025)

Volume and Rate Trends

• Global volumes fell 3% WoW, driven by an 11% decline in North America due to the Independence Day holiday.
• Global rates rose 2% WoW, led by strength in Asia-Pacific lanes.

Key Lane Performance

• China & Hong Kong to Europe: Volumes surged 15% YoY, reaching their 2025 peak.
• Asia-Pacific to U.S.: Volumes dipped 3% WoW, but rates rose 3% WoW.

Market Drivers

• Pre-tariff frontloading activity remained limited ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation.
• Capacity shifts and trade re-routing—especially due to de minimis regulation changes and e-commerce strategy shifts—continue to influence Asia-Pacific flows.

(Source: WorldACD)

Ocean Timeliness Indicator – Week Ending July 14, 2025

• China to U.S. West Coast: Transit time increased by 1 day (from 37.1 to 38.1 days).
• China to North Europe: Transit time improved by 2.3 days (from 60 to 57.7 days).
• China to U.S. East Coast: Transit time increased by 0.8 days (from 50.8 to 51.6 days).

Source: https://www.flexport.com/global-logistics-update/July-17-2025-nations-brace-for-aug-1-reciprocal-duties/

𝐀𝐋𝐒 – 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐯𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬

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