Global airfreight markets remained relatively stable over the past week, as shippers and carriers alike await clarity on U.S. trade policy developments. According to the latest data from TAC Index—a leading air cargo price reporting agency—the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) recorded a marginal decline of 0.1% in the week ending July 7, maintaining its position within recent trading ranges. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the index has declined by 7.3%, reflecting ongoing rate moderation in response to macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuating demand.
This week’s data captures a pivotal moment in the market, as the 90-day suspension of elevated U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Europe, and other key regions approaches its expiration. The outcome of this policy decision is likely to have far-reaching implications for global freight flows and pricing structures.
Asia Origins: Rates Edge Up as Spot Market Reacts
Across the major Chinese air cargo hubs, rate movements remained modest. Rates on the busiest lanes from China to the United States and Europe were largely unchanged. However, spot market activity out of Hong Kong showed upward momentum.
The newly introduced BAI Spot Indices—which reflect real-time spot market rates out of Hong Kong and commenced public trial on July 1—indicated a gradual increase in rates throughout the week. The broader BAI30 index, covering both spot and contract shipments from Hong Kong, rose by 2.4% week-on-week (WoW), reducing the YoY decline to 8.2%.
Similarly, the Shanghai outbound index (BAI80) increased 0.9% WoW, although it remains 9.6% lower YoY. From other Asian origins, Vietnam saw weekly gains on exports to both the U.S. and Europe, partially recovering from recent declines, though still significantly lower YoY. India’s rates remained largely flat, showing minimal weekly fluctuation.
European Origins: Mixed Movements Across Global Destinations
From Europe, airfreight rates exhibited varied trends across destinations. Transatlantic rates to the U.S. and to Japan declined, while rates to China rose modestly. Among recently added trade lanes—including those to Mexico, Brazil, India, Australia, and South Africa—weekly movements were mixed, yet all showed positive YoY growth to varying extents.
The Frankfurt outbound index (BAI20) dipped slightly by 0.7% WoW, resulting in a 7.2% YoY increase. While rates to North America rose, these gains were offset by declines on lanes bound for Asia. Similarly, the London outbound index (BAI40) recorded a more pronounced 11.5% drop WoW, although it continues to reflect strong momentum with a 20.2% YoY increase, supported by previous substantial gains.
U.S. Origins: Declines Persist, with Regional Exceptions
Airfreight rates from the United States trended lower on most major outbound corridors, including routes to Europe, China, and South America. However, there were exceptions: lanes southbound from Miami extended recent gains, maintaining strong YoY performance, bolstered by resilient demand across Latin America.
The Chicago outbound index (BAI50) declined by 0.7% WoW, pushing the YoY figure to –10.5%, continuing the downward trajectory seen in recent months amid broader U.S. market softening.
Conclusion: A Market on Standby
The overall picture for global airfreight remains one of cautious stability, as stakeholders monitor the conclusion of the 90-day tariff suspension period. While spot rate activity is increasing in some regions—most notably Hong Kong and Vietnam—the broader market continues to trade within a narrow band, underscoring the uncertainty that looms over international trade policy.
The potential reinstatement of higher tariffs by the United States, should no additional Executive Order be issued, could serve as a turning point—redefining both demand trajectories and capacity allocations across key lanes. Until then, markets appear poised, watching closely for regulatory signals that may define the next chapter of global air cargo pricing.
Source: https://aircargoweek.com/markets-on-edge-as-90-day-suspension-of-tariffs-comes-to-an-end/
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