As global air cargo enters the second half of 2025, the industry faces a critical inflection point. While demand beyond the traditional China–U.S. trade lane is showing signs of resilience, sustained growth will depend on the sector’s ability to diversify trade flows and adapt to evolving geopolitical and regulatory pressures.
According to Freightos, global air cargo volumes through May 2025 were up 3% year-on-year, despite a pronounced contraction on transpacific routes. During Freightos' "Global Freight and Trade War Outlook" webinar held on 10 July, Judah Levine, Head of Research, emphasized the need for caution, citing uncertainty over whether emerging growth patterns will hold steady in the latter half of the year.
“Even with the de minimis policy changes affecting transpacific volumes, we are seeing continued growth across other trade lanes—especially driven by Chinese e-commerce platforms seeking expansion in new markets,” Levine stated.
Transpacific Contraction Undermines Overall Momentum
Air cargo volumes on the China–U.S. transpacific corridor declined 11% year-on-year in May, and were down 12% compared to April, according to Freightos. The drop has been largely attributed to two factors:
The removal of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed low-value goods to enter the U.S. without tariffs.
Heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which prompted frontloading of shipments earlier in the year.
As a result, volume from Chinese exporters to the U.S. has softened, pressuring both rates and capacity on the historically dominant route.
Shifting Demand Toward Alternative Trade Lanes
Despite the transpacific downturn, other regional corridors have shown promising volume growth. E-commerce shippers have sought alternative transport routes to mitigate the impact of new tariffs and regulatory constraints. According to Levine, volume diversification is increasingly evident:
Asia–Europe traffic rose by 18% in June, supported by freighter redeployments.
Capacity is expanding out of Taiwan and Vietnam, in anticipation of tariff changes set for August 2025.
“With the decline in China–U.S. volumes, freighter capacity that was previously allocated to the transpacific lane is now being redirected,” Levine explained. “We’re seeing capacity growth in other markets as a response to changing demand dynamics.”
Freight data provider Rotate corroborates this trend, reporting a 13% decline in transpacific widebody freighter capacity in June, relative to the prior four-week average. The excess capacity has shifted toward emerging hubs in Southeast Asia and to intercontinental lanes such as Asia–Europe.
Global Supply-Demand Rebalance and Capacity Risks
While diversification is progressing, Freightos also noted in its weekly market update on July 8 that global air cargo capacity may now be outpacing demand. This development is primarily due to a sharp contraction in e-commerce volumes, particularly from China, which had previously supported significant uplift on multiple trade lanes.
As a result, the Freightos Air Index global benchmark rate is currently 7% lower than it was in July 2024, reflecting a softening global rate environment.
Airfreight Pricing: Diverging Trends Between Lanes
Airfreight rates are adjusting in tandem with these shifts in capacity and demand:
China–U.S. spot rates rose to $5.57/kg in the first week of July, as a result of capacity tightening, but have since stabilized. This is roughly in line with July 2024 levels.
Conversely, China–Europe rates declined by 12% over the past month, reaching $3.35/kg. This drop is believed to stem from freighter reallocation from transpacific to Asia–Europe lanes, increasing available capacity and exerting downward pressure on pricing.
“Rate stability on the transpacific contrasts with the softening seen on China–Europe, where capacity has increased,” Levine commented.
Looking Ahead: Diversification Is Key to Market Stability
While IATA forecasts air cargo volumes to remain flat in 2025, the actual trajectory for the remainder of the year will largely depend on the success of trade diversification efforts. The ability of shippers and logistics providers to capitalize on alternative lanes and reconfigured supply chains will be central to offsetting the decline on China–U.S. routes.
“Whether the second half of the year shows contraction—or balances out—will depend on whether diversification can compensate for the sharp decline in transpacific traffic,” Levine concluded.
Conclusion
In an increasingly fragmented global trade landscape, air cargo stakeholders must prioritize resilience and adaptability. While early signs of diversification are encouraging, long-term recovery will depend on how successfully markets can absorb redirected capacity and sustain demand beyond traditional corridors. As the August tariff deadline looms, the industry continues to navigate a complex intersection of policy, demand, and logistics network transformation.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/supply-chains/second-half-air-cargo-volumes-depend-on-market-diversification/1080374.article
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