News #103 - Trump policies make airfreight shippers jittery about downturn

Policy changes under the Trump administration could slow global air cargo growth to 3%.

Concerns over a slowdown in airfreight shipping have intensified as President Donald Trump’s rapid implementation of policy changes begins to impact the global economy. These changes are particularly affecting low-value shipments from China, which have been a key driver of air cargo growth over the past two years.

The air cargo industry, which witnessed a robust 12% growth in demand last year, now faces a stark contrast. Market growth, initially expected to stabilize at around 5% annually, has instead slowed to 2-3% in January, with the prospect of contraction becoming increasingly plausible.

The Trump administration’s swift imposition of tariffs and other emergency measures has created significant uncertainty for businesses. This has led to hesitation in spending and investment, disrupted financial markets, and heightened fears of a U.S. recession or stagflation—a scenario combining high inflation with sluggish economic growth. Such economic stagnation in the U.S. could have cascading effects on the global economy.

Among the most significant threats to air cargo is a pending executive order that would end duty-free treatment and simplified entry for low-value parcel shipments from China, Canada, and Mexico. Cross-border e-commerce, which has been the primary growth engine for air cargo since 2023, could take a substantial hit.

“If this segment suffers a major setback, the impact on airfreight rates globally could be profound,” warned Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at freight data provider Xeneta.

Tariffs and Their Far-Reaching Impacts

The White House has already imposed a 20% tariff on all goods from China, with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports set to take effect. Further tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and other nations have been announced, adding to the uncertainty. Economists predict these measures will exacerbate inflation, reduce consumer spending, and negatively impact business confidence.

Retail giants such as Target and Best Buy have indicated they will raise prices on specific products in response to the increased tariffs. This response underscores the broader economic impact, particularly in sectors reliant on international supply chains.

At the recent AirCargo 2025 conference in Arlington, Texas, industry experts expressed concern about the long-term ramifications of these policies. If the tariffs remain in place for an extended period, air cargo demand could decline significantly, potentially recreating the shortages seen during the COVID-19 era.

Freight forwarders have echoed these concerns, noting that prolonged tariffs and an isolationist U.S. trade policy could dampen growth in the logistics sector. Tom Fitzgerald, an equity analyst at TD Cowen, highlighted that airfreight revenue could become a liability for carriers in 2025, following its positive contribution in late 2024.

Shifting Strategies Amid Uncertainty

The de minimis program, which facilitates duty-free importation of goods valued under $800, has faced criticism for enabling large-scale exploitation by e-commerce platforms and fostering issues like smuggling and counterfeit goods. Temporary rescindment of de minimis eligibility for China-origin parcels revealed logistical challenges, such as the inability of U.S. systems to process the surge in customs data.

E-commerce platforms and logistics operators are now adapting to the changing regulatory landscape. Strategies include shifting air cargo volumes from China to other Asia-Pacific countries and increasing the use of ocean freight for U.S. distribution. These adjustments may alleviate some pressure but could also lead to decreased air cargo volumes and a decline in spot rates.

Economic Indicators and Industry Outlook

Recent reports reveal a 10% year-over-year drop in Chinese air exports to the U.S. and a 29% decline in airfreight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. between January and February. Spot rates across the trans-Pacific route are showing the slowest growth among major trade lanes, indicating broader concerns about demand.

Globally, airfreight demand grew by 4% in February, driven by the resumption of factory and warehouse activity in China after the Lunar New Year holiday. However, growth was modest compared to the double-digit increases observed in February 2024.

Macroeconomic uncertainties further complicate the outlook. Rising inflation, surging inventory levels, and declining manufacturing activity have contributed to reduced growth forecasts. The Logistics Managers’ Index indicates that pre-buying activity to mitigate tariff impacts has subsided, potentially leading to decreased orders and reduced demand for airfreight services.

The U.S. labor market also reflects growing economic unease, with February marking the highest job cut numbers since July 2020. Delta Air Lines has revised its second-quarter projections downward, citing weakened consumer and corporate confidence.

Conclusion

As the Trump administration continues to implement aggressive trade and economic policies, the airfreight industry is bracing for significant challenges. While global air cargo demand shows some resilience, the sector faces an uncertain future as macroeconomic pressures mount and trade relationships evolve.

The combination of tariffs, policy unpredictability, and shifting supply chain dynamics will likely shape the air cargo landscape in the coming years. Stakeholders across the logistics and transportation sectors must remain agile and prepared for further disruptions.

𝐀𝐋𝐒 – 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐯𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬

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