News #122 - Transatlantic Air Cargo: Calm Surface, Hidden Currents

25.07.2025

At first glance, the transatlantic air cargo market appears calm—characterized by relatively stable capacity and freight rates. However, beneath this surface-level stability, a series of subtle yet consequential shifts are reshaping cargo flows, pricing dynamics, and network strategies, particularly on secondary corridors such as Canada–Europe and Mexico–Europe.

Capacity Movements: Asymmetry and Tactical Growth

While overall transatlantic capacity has remained broadly stable, directional imbalances are beginning to emerge. So far in 2025:

Eastbound (Europe–North America) capacity has grown by approximately 2%.
Westbound (North America–Europe) capacity has declined by around 1%.

Yet more granular analysis reveals pronounced month-on-month fluctuations:

Canada to Europe capacity increased 14% in recent months.
Europe to Canada capacity surged 16%, with significant expansions from Air Canada and Air France-KLM.

These shifts coincide with the onset of the summer travel season, expanding bellyhold capacity on passenger aircraft. However, underlying cargo performance suggests more than seasonal uplift. Flown tonnage from Europe to Canada rose by approximately 10% in early July, compared to the preceding three-week average—with limited corresponding rate escalation thus far.

Spot Rate Behavior: Emerging Premiums on Niche Lanes

Market data shows spot rates from Canada to the UK nearly doubled by late June, while rates on the France–Canada corridor also registered sharp increases. Analysts attribute this to:

Rising demand linked to UK–Canada trade integration, especially following the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Growing logistics requirements across both ocean and air cargo modes as bilateral trade deepens.

European Export Growth to North America: Country Highlights

While the broader Europe–U.S. market remains stable, specific national export trends are reshaping air cargo dynamics:

Italy: Air exports to the U.S. surged over 33%, primarily driven by fashion and apparel.
France: Shipments rose by nearly 50%, led by luxury goods and pharmaceuticals.
Norway: Fish exports to the U.S. soared over 50%, continuing a strong cold-chain growth trajectory.
Ireland: Anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals has pushed airfreight rates higher since May, with further escalation seen in July.

Seasonal Softening and Strategic Watchpoints

As expected during the summer season, transatlantic freight rates have moderated due to increased passenger-driven bellyhold availability, especially on primary routes between mainland Europe and the U.S. As such, spot pricing is forecasted to remain stable or slightly decrease through the remainder of Q3.

Yet airlines remain cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2025, citing positive signals emerging from peak season procurement negotiations.

Key watchpoints include:

The postponed U.S. reciprocal tariff deadline (now August 1), which may prompt short-term frontloading of shipments from affected partners such as Japan and South Korea.
The realignment of freighter capacity, with some carriers shifting assets away from Asia-Pacific routes to transatlantic lanes.
The termination of the U.S. de minimis exemption, which will likely reshape eCommerce flows, particularly from Europe into the U.S. market.

Conclusion: Beneath the Calm, Opportunity and Risk Coexist

Despite the appearance of stability, the transatlantic air cargo market is undergoing measured, directional transformation. Niche corridors are gaining momentum, driven by strategic trade alignments, capacity redistribution, and policy-induced demand shifts.

Shippers and logistics stakeholders should remain vigilant and agile—prepared to capitalize on emerging opportunities while anticipating potential disruptions.

In this environment, the ability to detect and respond to subtle inflection points will define competitive advantage across the transatlantic supply chain.

Source: https://metro.global/news/transatlantic-air-cargo-calm-surface-hidden-currents/