News #104 - Trade tensions prompt air cargo market uncertainty

21.03.2025

Xeneta had initially predicted a 4% to 6% year-over-year increase in global air cargo demand for 2025 following a year of double-digit growth. However, trade uncertainty has cast doubts on these projections.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, following a similar increase on February 4. Additionally, plans to implement universal reciprocal tariffs by April 2 are intensifying industry uncertainty.

These policy changes have disrupted supply chains across multiple sectors as businesses scramble to mitigate the effects.

“Based on the discussions we’ve had, some shippers are actively seeking ways to minimize the impact of U.S. tariffs, while others are anticipating reduced airfreight rates if e-commerce volumes decline,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer.

February by the numbers

4%: YoY percentage increase in global air cargo volume.
$2.53: The average spot rate per kilogram, up 10% YoY
59%: The global dynamic load factor, which measures the volume and weight of cargo flown, as well as available capacity. February’s reading was unchanged YoY.

E-Commerce Trends Drive Market Dynamics

E-commerce has been a dominant driver of air cargo activity in recent years. However, early 2025 brought a seasonal decline in e-commerce demand, coupled with the U.S.’ temporary suspension of the de minimis exemption on China-based shipments.

“Regulatory and political developments are starting to influence the air cargo market,” van de Wouw stated.

He added, “While general cargo demand has stagnated in recent years, the surge in e-commerce has been the backbone of air cargo market performance. Should e-commerce experience a significant decline, the global airfreight rate structure could be profoundly impacted.”

In February, the airfreight market exhibited noticeable shifts:

Shanghai to U.S. Spot Rates: Dropped 29% month-over-month to $3.23 per kilogram.

Shanghai to Europe Spot Rates: Declined only 2% month-over-month.

According to van de Wouw, the outbound e-commerce surge a few years ago caused significant capacity strain in Hong Kong and southern China. As a result, Shanghai emerged as a preferred hub despite its higher costs. However, the current decline in e-commerce volumes is enabling capacity to return to Hong Kong and southern China, potentially reducing Shanghai’s dominance in the market.

“If e-commerce volumes remain low, Shanghai is likely to feel the impact first, as observed in February,” van de Wouw said. “While this may be temporary, the uncertainty surrounding e-commerce is already influencing market behavior.”

Potential Modal Shifts

Xeneta’s report also highlights the Trump administration’s proposed additional port call fees on China-built ships. This policy could temporarily raise ocean container freight rates, potentially driving a shift from ocean freight to airfreight.

Source: https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/trade-tensions-xeneta-tariffs-air-cargo-market-uncertainty/742745/