The global air freight market enters the second half of 2025 characterized by volatility and uncertainty, as early signs of seasonal demand collide with shifting tariff regulations and cautious consumer sentiment.
Although former President Trump has indicated that the next round of U.S. tariffs may not take effect until August, the regulatory timeline remains unequivocal. The executive order issued on April 9 stipulates that reciprocal tariffs will be enforced from 12:01 AM EDT on July 9, barring the issuance of any subsequent Executive Order. This legal certainty is already reshaping shipper behavior across major trade corridors, prompting accelerated freight movements and strategic adjustments to sourcing frameworks.
June Snapshot: Seasonal Softening Meets Policy-Driven Shifts
As expected, June marked a seasonal slowdown in air cargo activity. Rates out of Hong Kong to Europe and North America experienced modest month-over-month declines in the low single digits. Year-over-year, the reduction was more pronounced—particularly on North American routes—driven by waning consumer demand and subdued e-commerce volumes.
The removal of de minimis exemptions, paired with tariffs applied to a broad range of goods, has led to a tangible reconfiguration in trade flows. Air cargo volumes from China to the U.S. have declined by approximately 15% since March, with corresponding rates falling by over 15%. In contrast, cargo tonnage from China to Europe has increased by 15% year-over-year, supported by more stable pricing structures and realigned carrier capacity.
On the transatlantic front, capacity from expanded passenger bellyhold services pushed rates down slightly in June. Nevertheless, spot prices in both directions between Europe and North America remain higher than this time last year, suggesting a foundation of structural demand resilience.
Spot Market Expansion and Capacity Instability
One of the quarter’s most defining trends is the surge in spot market activity on the Asia Pacific–U.S. trade lane. By June, over 70% of general cargo bookings on this route were transacted on spot terms, a substantial increase from approximately 50% during the same period last year. This shift illustrates growing market uncertainty, fluctuating demand, and varying perceptions regarding tariff implementation timelines and impacts.
In contrast, spot market reliance on Asia–Europe routes remains comparatively steady, with about 47% of cargo volumes moving under short-term contracts. The widening gap between spot and long-term contract pricing underscores the challenges of capacity forecasting in politically sensitive and economically fluid environments.
Peak Season Outlook: A Departure from Tradition
Historically, global air freight demand surges from mid-August as retailers bolster inventory for the back-to-school period, autumn promotions, and the year-end holiday season. However, current market conditions deviate significantly from established patterns. Consumer confidence remains fragile, influenced by inflationary pressures and persistent trade friction. Many major shippers are displaying a marked reluctance to commit to long-term air cargo contracts.
In June, global air cargo volumes grew by only 1% year-over-year, while available capacity increased at a faster pace—marking the first such imbalance in over 18 months. This overcapacity is expected to place downward pressure on freight rates across key trade lanes, even as jet fuel prices climb and geopolitical risk factors persist.
Some trade lanes, particularly those connecting Southeast Asia and the U.S., experienced modest rate increases in June, buoyed by pre-tariff front-loading and ongoing capacity realignment. However, the overall Q3 outlook remains conservative. Analysts suggest that sluggish consumer spending and tariff-induced trade disruptions could suppress the traditional peak season surge, especially on transpacific routes.
Outlook: Navigating Complexity with Agility
Amid structural uncertainty, the current environment presents strategic opportunities for shippers. Short-term rate flexibility, greater capacity availability, and a carrier landscape adapting to demand volatility position the market favorably for well-prepared stakeholders.
The pivotal variable remains U.S. trade policy. In the absence of a new Executive Order, July 9 will signal the commencement of a new tariff era—potentially triggering ripple effects throughout global supply chains just as the industry approaches its critical high-demand period.
Call to Action: Proactive Planning for Competitive Advantage
Now is the time for strategic foresight. With short-term pricing flexibility, expanded access to capacity, and adaptive carrier services, shippers have a rare window of opportunity to secure reliable and cost-efficient air freight solutions ahead of peak season constraints.
Advance planning will be key to navigating the evolving regulatory landscape and capitalizing on transient market efficiencies before traditional capacity pressure returns in full force.
Source: https://metro.global/news/preparing-for-air-cargo-peak-season-amid-tariff-uncertainty/
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