News #124 - June Air Cargo Demand Up 0.8% Despite Trade Disruptions

08.08.2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released June 2025 global air cargo market data, revealing modest growth amid heightened trade tensions and geopolitical disruptions.

Global Performance Overview

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 0.8% year-on-year compared to June 2024 (1.6% for international operations).

Available capacity (ACTK) rose 1.7% year-on-year (2.8% for international operations).

“While overall demand grew slightly in June, performance diverged sharply by region. Trade tensions contributed to an 8.3% decline in North American traffic and stagnant growth in Europe at 0.8%. In contrast, Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a robust 9.0% expansion. Middle East volumes fell 3.2% due to ongoing regional conflict,”
— Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA.

Walsh stressed that stability and predictability are critical for global trade. While clarity on U.S. tariffs offers businesses some planning certainty, many of the new agreements have resulted in significantly higher import tariffs into the U.S. compared to earlier in 2025. He urged governments to simplify, accelerate, and secure trade flows through greater digitalization.

Key Market Drivers

  • Industrial Production: Global output rose 3.2% YoY in May.
  • Global Goods Trade: Increased 5% YoY in May.
  • Fuel Prices: Jet fuel averaged 12% lower YoY in June (fourth consecutive monthly decline), but was 8.6% higher than in May.
  • Manufacturing Trends: The global PMI rebounded above the neutral 50 mark to 51.2. New export orders rose 1.2 points to 49.3, still contracting under pressure from shifting U.S. trade policy.

Regional Performance – June 2025

RegionWorld Share of CTKs*Demand (CTK) YoYCapacity (ACTK) YoYLoad Factor Change (%-pt)**Load Factor Level (%)***
Total Market100%+0.8%+1.7%-0.445.5
Africa2.0%+3.9%+6.2%-0.942.1
Asia-Pacific34.2%+9.0%+7.8%+0.650.3
Europe21.5%+0.8%+2.6%-0.949.6
Latin America & Caribbean2.9%+3.5%-0.4%+1.436.6
Middle East13.6%-3.2%+1.5%-2.245.2
North America25.8%-8.3%-5.1%-1.338.5

* Based on 2024 industry CTKs
** Year-on-year change in load factor
*** Actual load factor for the month

Trade Lane Analysis

  • Asia–North America: -4.8% YoY — Seventh consecutive monthly decline; accounts for 24.4% of global CTKs.
  • Europe–Asia: +10.6% YoY — 28 consecutive months of growth; 20.5% market share.
  • Europe–Middle East: -4.5% YoY — Sixth consecutive monthly decline; 5.7% share.
  • Middle East–Asia: +2.8% YoY — Fourth consecutive month of growth; 7.4% share.
  • Within Asia: +8.7% YoY — 20 consecutive months of growth; 7.0% share.
  • Europe–North America: +4.8% YoY — 17 consecutive months of growth; 13.3% share.
  • Africa–Asia: -4.8% YoY — Second month of decline; 1.4% share.

Outlook

While modest global growth masks regional disparities, the June data underscores the sensitivity of air cargo to geopolitical volatility, trade policy shifts, and regional disruptions.

IATA emphasized that trade facilitation through digitalization and tariff policy clarity will be critical to sustaining momentum into the second half of 2025.

Source: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-07-31-01/

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