The global air cargo market started 2025 with lower-than-expected growth, recording a 2% year-on-year increase in January, significantly below the double-digit monthly gains seen throughout 2024.
Despite this slowdown, industry analysts at Xeneta caution against premature fears of a trade war impacting long-term growth projections.
Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, attributed the January slowdown to multiple factors, including an earlier Lunar New Year and an unusually high comparison to January 2024.
However, he maintains Xeneta’s 4-6% growth forecast for 2025, despite market nervousness over new U.S. tariffs on China and potential retaliatory measures.
Van de Wouw said: “The slowdown wasn’t due to President Trump’s tariff policies or just the earlier Lunar New Year. The market is entering a period of uncertainty, making planning more difficult.
“The introduction of tariffs by the U.S., China, Canada, and Mexico is just the start of negotiations.
“While a full-blown trade war is possible, President Trump is transactional, he’s looking for a deal, and global players can influence the outcome.”
E-Commerce Growth Under Scrutiny
One of the key drivers of air cargo demand in recent years has been cross-border e-commerce, particularly shipments from China to the U.S., which accounted for 25% of China’s total global sales and filled over 50% of cargo capacity on routes from China to the U.S.
A potential suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption—which allows low-value goods to enter the country duty-free—could significantly impact these shipments. However, van de Wouw believes Chinese e-commerce giants are prepared for this shift.
“E-commerce volumes from China grew 20-30% in 2024, following a similar trajectory in 2023. It would take a massive disruption to derail that trend,” he said.
“Blocking de minimis won’t stop demand—consumers still want cheap, fast goods. The real issue is not price but delays in shipping times, which could reduce the appeal for consumers.”
Impact on Freight Rates and Market Dynamics
General freight shippers may benefit from any decline in e-commerce volumes, as cargo capacity shifts to other markets, potentially pushing freight rates lower.
However, general air freight demand has shown little to no growth in recent years, and 2025 is expected to continue that trend.
January 2025 Air Cargo Market Performance
While the air cargo market faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty, analysts suggest waiting before making drastic predictions.
Van de Wouw concluded: “There’s a lot of noise but little clarity right now.
“It’s best to remain flexible and watch how things unfold.”
Source: https://caasint.com/global-air-cargo-growth-slows-in-january-amid-trade-war-uncertainty/
Worldwide air cargo recorded a +2% year-on-year (YoY) tonnage increase in January, well below the +11% average growth last year
While most companies are professing ‘uncertainty’ over the potential impact of the closure of the de minimis exemption for Chinese companies
The U.S. Postal Service is reversing course a day after placing a ban on all inbound packages from China and Hong Kong.
Steady overall economic growth and a push to boost inventory levels ahead of looming tariffs drives growth across warehousing and transportation markets
Trump’s tariff policy centers around stopping illegal immigration and fentanyl from entering the United States, along with his America First trade policy
Worldwide air cargo tonnages continued to rebuild in the third week of 2025 following their seasonal drop in the final days of December and the start of this year
There is unlikely to be a quick shift from airfreight to ocean following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire that could also bring to an end a prolonged period of conflict on the Red...
Companies face a multifaceted balancing act of controlling costs, stopping fraud and maintaining engagement and flexibility for customers.
The study shows that 74% of the supply chain and logistics leaders surveyed view technology as fundamental or highly important to their organization’s growth
ALS