Early 2025 has brought notable changes to global air cargo markets, driven by evolving trade dynamics, moderate capacity growth, and the implementation of new regulatory measures, as outlined in DHL Global Forwarding’s latest market update.
Geopolitical Shifts
Global airfreight demand increased by 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, partially fueled by rising trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China. Businesses, anticipating the imposition of new tariffs, expedited shipments via air cargo, favoring its speed over ocean freight.
The Asia-Pacific region remains the primary driver of growth, with substantial contributions from China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Japan. Several critical trade lanes recorded impressive performance, including:
Europe–Americas: +9%
Asia Pacific–Americas: +3%
Intra-Asia Pacific: +11%
However, ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea region and Ukraine continue to disrupt cargo flows, adding operational complexity. Challenges such as rerouting, increased insurance costs, and congestion in alternative trade corridors underscore the impact of geopolitical instability on international air cargo logistics.
Capacity Growth Lags Behind Demand
While demand for airfreight continues to grow, capacity expansion has not kept pace. DHL forecasts a 3–4% increase in available capacity, falling short of the projected 4–6% rise in demand.
This disparity reflects the persistence of operational uncertainties, driven by shifting trade policies, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating e-commerce volumes.
Carriers and freight forwarders are responding cautiously to these pressures, mindful of the risks associated with overexpansion in an environment marked by regulatory unpredictability and geopolitical volatility.
Canada’s PACT Security Screening Program
A significant regulatory development in Q1 2025 is Canada’s launch of the Pre-Load Air Cargo Targeting (PACT) program. Effective from April 1, 2025, this security framework requires risk assessments for all shipments destined for Canada to be completed before loading onto aircraft.
The program’s objective is to identify high-risk cargo in advance, aligning Canada’s air cargo security measures with international best practices.
Forwarders operating on transatlantic and transpacific routes must adapt their processes to meet PACT requirements, including updates to documentation and screening protocols.
Conclusion
As air cargo markets navigate the challenges of 2025, stakeholders must remain agile in responding to shifting trade dynamics, capacity constraints, and evolving regulatory landscapes. The ability to adapt to these factors will be critical for carriers and forwarders seeking to maintain efficiency and reliability in a complex and unpredictable global environment.
Source: https://aircargoweek.com/dhl-whats-shaping-air-cargo-in-2025/
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