Following the recent U.S.-China trade deal, approximately half of the transpacific air cargo capacity lost after the revocation of the "de minimis" tax exemption on May 2 has been restored. However, this resurgence in capacity is not being driven by ecommerce demand.
According to Cirrus Global Advisors (CGA), many flights that were suspended due to increased tariffs and fees have resumed operations. These adjustments come as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have decreased from 145% to 30%, and "de minimis" fees have dropped from 120% to 54%.
CGA noted, “We have seen some flights returning to secondary Chinese cities like Hefei, Wuxi, Ningbo, Shenyang, and Xiamen. Hangzhou, which had been relatively dormant for freighters, has also seen a significant resurgence. Atlas Air, for example, has increased its daily flights by about four but remains two flights below its typical eastbound Anchorage (ANC) operations.”
However, CGA emphasized that this recovery is “not primarily ecommerce-driven.”
Traditional Air Freight Leading the Recovery
Derek Lossing, founder and senior industry advisor of ecommerce and transportation at CGA, explained that cross-border ecommerce has yet to recover robustly. “Much of the capacity that has returned, we suspect, is fulfilling pent-up demand for traditional air freight, which had been on hold during the period of 145% tariffs,” Lossing stated.
Brandon Fried, executive director of the Air Forwarders’ Association, echoed these sentiments during the IATA Cargo Network Services (CNS) conference in Miami. He expressed concerns about the impact on companies heavily invested in ecommerce logistics. “When tariffs blanket the market, they inevitably curtail demand, and that’s worrisome,” Fried said.
Fried also highlighted the enduring appeal of online shopping: “Consumers enjoy the convenience of ecommerce. It’s a trend that’s here to stay. However, certain tariff levels are more sustainable than others, and I don’t believe 30% is one of them. While 30% is certainly better than 145%, I hope to see it negotiated to an even lower rate.”
Ecommerce Impacted by Loss of De Minimis Exemption
Despite the partial recovery in transpacific airfreight capacity, Lossing noted that there remains approximately 1.3 million kilograms less daily capacity compared to pre-May 2 levels.
For ecommerce, Fried underscored that the removal of the "de minimis" exemption poses a significant challenge. “The ‘de minimis’ program was instrumental in fostering ecommerce growth. Its removal has had a profound impact,” he stated.
Fried further explained that the shift away from airfreight is altering distribution strategies for major ecommerce players like Shein and Temu. “Instead of individual airfreight shipments, these companies are increasingly opting for ocean transport in bulk. Goods are then stored in U.S. warehouses and distributed domestically, similar to Amazon’s model,” he said.
A Changing Landscape for Airfreight and Ecommerce
While the restoration of transpacific airfreight capacity signals some recovery, the industry is adapting to new market dynamics. Ecommerce volumes are unlikely to return to previous levels in the short term due to tariff pressures and the elimination of the "de minimis" exemption.
This shift towards bulk ocean shipments and domestic warehousing represents a strategic pivot for ecommerce companies, underscoring the evolving challenges and opportunities in the global airfreight sector.
Source: https://indiaseatradenews.com/demand-for-transpac-airfreight-capacity-returning-but-its-not-ecommerce-driven/
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