Air cargo demand between China and the United States experienced a significant decline during the first full week following the removal of the "de minimis" exemption for Chinese e-commerce shipments.
According to data released by WorldACD for the week ending May 11 (Week 19), airfreight volumes from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. fell by 10% compared to the prior week (Week 18), which had already recorded a 14% decline from the preceding week.
“Year-on-year volumes from China and Hong Kong to North America dropped by 27% in Week 19, marking the fourth consecutive week of double-digit percentage declines,” WorldACD reported.
Impact of De Minimis Loophole Closure
Week 19 marked the first full week after the U.S. removed the "de minimis" exemption on May 2, which had previously allowed duty-free entry and minimal customs scrutiny for Chinese e-commerce packages. The policy change also partially affected Week 18, coinciding with China’s Labor Day holidays, further compounding the decline in volumes.
While the U.S. and China have since agreed to a temporary 90-day truce in their trade conflict—reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%—non-postal e-commerce shipments from China remain subject to the 30% tariff and additional customs procedures. Postal shipments, meanwhile, face a 54% tariff or a flat $100 fee.
This temporary trade pause may provide an opportunity for cargo volumes to stabilize.
“The coming weeks will likely present new developments following the unexpectedly swift pause in the U.S.-China trade war,” WorldACD observed. “This could lead to front-loading activity, potentially straining the already reduced container shipping capacity.”
The 90-day tariff suspension could also encourage a partial resurgence in airfreight usage. However, WorldACD cautioned that non-postal parcels requiring customs clearance may face higher costs and longer transit times, reducing the attractiveness of airfreight for direct China-U.S. shipments.
Global Airfreight Trends
On a global scale, airfreight volumes measured in chargeable weight terms declined by 1% week-over-week in Week 19. This represents a continuation of a contraction trend observed since early April, interrupted only by stable volumes in Week 17.
Despite the week-over-week drop, volumes in Week 19 were 2% higher than during the same period in 2024, indicating some resilience in the global airfreight market despite regional disruptions.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/de-minimis-exemption-change-hits-china-us-air-cargo-demand/1080132.article
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