News #113 - China’s Industry, Retail Data, Air Freight to US All Edge Down

China's industrial output and retail sales experienced a slowdown in April, accompanied by a sharp reduction in air freight capacity to the United States. These developments come amidst significant policy changes, including the suspension of the U.S. "de minimis" tax exemption for low-value parcels.

Declining Industrial Output and Retail Sales

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that factory output grew by 6.1% year-on-year in April, down from 7.7% in March but slightly surpassing expectations. Retail sales, a key indicator of domestic consumption, increased by 5.1% in April, compared to 5.9% in March and below economists' projections of 5.5%.

Fixed asset investment, another economic barometer, expanded by 4.0% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. This figure fell short of forecasts for a 4.2% increase and was a deceleration from the 4.2% growth reported in the first quarter.

Air Freight Decline and "De Minimis" Loophole Closure

Air freight capacity between China and the U.S. has dropped significantly, following the U.S. decision to remove the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments earlier this month. This policy change has disrupted a vital revenue stream for major Asian airlines, including Cathay Pacific, China Southern, Air China, and Korean Air, which have benefited from the booming e-commerce trade driven by fast-fashion retailers like Shein and Temu.

While a trade war truce between the U.S. and China temporarily reduced tariffs, the suspension of "de minimis" exemptions continues to hinder demand. Marco Bloemen, Managing Director of air cargo consultancy Aevean, noted that while air cargo capacity is beginning to recover, e-commerce volumes remain temporarily impacted. This sudden decline in demand for shipments to the U.S., coupled with limited prospects for a solid rebound, presents significant challenges for Asian airlines already contending with declining passenger revenues and fears of a global economic slowdown.

Economic Headwinds for Airlines

Cargo revenue, which constitutes approximately a quarter of total revenue for airlines like Cathay Pacific and Korean Air, has been a critical pillar for these carriers. In 2024, cargo yields and revenues grew significantly faster than passenger segments for several major airlines. Low-value e-commerce shipments, making up 55% of goods flown from China to the U.S. by air in 2024, have been particularly affected by the recent policy shifts. This figure marked a dramatic increase from just 5% in 2018, according to Aevean's analysis.

Despite robust demand during the pandemic, which prompted carriers like Cathay and Singapore Airlines to invest in new freighters, the loss of "de minimis" exemptions is prompting e-commerce players like Shein and Temu to shift toward sea freight and bulk shipments. For instance, Shein recently leased a large warehouse in Vietnam, signaling a strategic pivot to mitigate exposure to ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

Impacts on Air Cargo Capacity

Between May 2, when the "de minimis" exemption was suspended, and May 13, during a brief trade truce, air cargo capacity from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. fell by 26% compared to the previous year. Compared to the preceding four weeks, capacity was down by 30%. South Korea, a key e-commerce hub, also experienced a 22% decline in U.S.-bound cargo during this period.

Prominent cargo carriers have been hit hard. Atlas Air, a leading operator on the China-U.S. route, reported a 28% reduction in capacity year-on-year. Similarly, China Southern Airlines recorded a 30% drop. Even Cathay Pacific, which operates from the world’s largest cargo airport, saw a 2% decline. These reductions reverse a trend of increased capacity, which averaged 15% higher from China and 14% higher from South Korea over the prior year.

Shifts in Freight Strategies

As tariffs and trade policy changes continue to reshape the air cargo landscape, airlines and freight forwarders are adapting. Dimerco, an Asia-focused freight forwarder, reported the cancellation of several scheduled freighter services on the China-U.S. route, with capacity redirected to markets in Mexico and Latin America. Approximately 70 freighters ceased operations temporarily on Trans-Pacific routes, with some redeployed to other regions.

Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, could benefit as manufacturers and shippers look to diversify operations away from China. However, these nations also face new tariff challenges, limiting their ability to fully capitalize on the shifts in trade dynamics.

Long-Term Outlook

For Asian airlines, air cargo has been a financial lifeline, especially during the pandemic when passenger operations were largely grounded. However, the current decline in U.S.-bound air freight demand highlights vulnerabilities in reliance on specific markets and routes. The suspension of "de minimis" exemptions has underscored the need for strategic adjustments, as trade tensions and policy changes continue to create uncertainty in the global logistics network.

Without a resolution to these trade disputes, the air cargo sector faces an uncertain future, with longer-term consequences for supply chains and the broader economy. Airlines, freight forwarders, and e-commerce businesses must continue to adapt to navigate these evolving challenges effectively.

Source: https://www.asiafinancial.com/chinas-industry-retail-data-air-freight-to-us-all-edge-down

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