The global air cargo market is entering a new phase of uncertainty as the United States enforces higher tariff rates on dozens of countries, impacting key trade flows and high-value commodities.
Among the sectors set to be affected are apparel exports from India and desktop computers from Taiwan, both significant airfreight lanes into the U.S. market.
Assessing the Scale of Impact
Determining the precise effect of the new tariffs remains challenging due to the varied rates applied across different countries and the diverse nature of products involved.
According to consultancy Aevean, the 25% tariff on India warrants particular attention, as India ships approximately 201,000 tonnes of airfreight annually to the U.S.—the highest volume of any nation on the newly announced list. However, much of India’s air cargo comprises lower-value goods, and its top export category—pharmaceuticals—is exempt from the new measures, which will limit the per-unit cost impact.
Looking ahead, the U.S. has signaled the possibility of an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports starting 27 August, in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
High-Value Lanes Under Pressure
The consultancy notes that the tariffs imposed on Taiwan, Malaysia, and Switzerland are likely to have a significant market impact due to the high value density of goods shipped from these countries.
Taiwan faces a 20% tariff and exports roughly 186,000 tonnes of airfreight annually to the U.S., including major product categories such as desktop computers and peripherals.
Malaysia exports around 77,000 tonnes each year, with computer and office equipment among the goods most affected.
Switzerland ships approximately 62,000 tonnes annually, with key exports including watches and pharmaceuticals—the latter notably exempt from these new duties.
Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities
Certain commodity markets may see sharper disruptions. For example, Ecuador’s cut-flower exports could be more heavily impacted than Colombia’s, as Ecuador faces a 15% tariff versus Colombia’s 10%.
Meanwhile, Brazil—now subject to a 50% tariff—could experience sourcing shifts if these rates remain in place, even though much of its air cargo to the U.S. is lower in unit value.
Historical Context and Market Outlook
The revised tariff rates, introduced on 1 August, vary slightly from those first announced on 2 April (later delayed), yet remain substantially higher than historical norms.
Industry analysts caution that while some markets may absorb the increased costs through pricing adjustments or supply chain rerouting, others—particularly those involving high-value, time-sensitive goods—are more likely to feel immediate pressure. This could influence modal shifts, with shippers weighing airfreight’s speed advantage against the added financial burden of higher duties.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/supply-chains/air-cargo-market-faces-the-impact-of-latest-us-tariffs/1080486.article
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