U.S. plans to end tariff-free access for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong, coupled with a new 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, are projected to slash over $22 billion from the air cargo industry’s revenue within three years. This policy shift is also expected to threaten thousands of small online sellers reliant on direct-to-consumer (D2C) fulfillment models, according to Cirrus Global Advisors, an e-commerce and logistics consulting firm.
Derek Lossing, founder of Cirrus Global Advisors, described the U.S. administration’s trade actions as potentially devastating for air cargo originating from China, given the anticipated decline in demand for platforms like Temu and Shein. Lossing’s Seattle-based consultancy has quantified the ripple effects of these policy changes, estimating a $22 billion contraction in airfreight industry revenue due to reduced consumer demand, excess airline capacity, and falling yields.
Major carriers, including Atlas Air and Kuehne+Nagel’s Apex Logistics, along with e-commerce giants such as Amazon, are expected to experience significant revenue declines due to their reliance on Chinese marketplaces, Lossing said in a phone interview.
E-Commerce Shipments and Air Cargo Dependency
E-commerce shipments account for 50-60% of China-U.S. air cargo volumes and approximately 20% of global air cargo traffic, according to logistics providers and the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Daily trans-Pacific operations rely heavily on widebody freighters dedicated to transporting e-commerce goods.
Lossing predicts that U.S.-China trade lane air cargo revenue will decline by over 30%, driven by lower shipment volumes and yields following the implementation of new U.S. trade policies.
The de minimis program, which allows tax-free entry of goods valued under $800 per person per day, has been a cornerstone of cross-border e-commerce. Its elimination, effective May 2, will require formal customs entries for all shipments, significantly increasing processing times and costs.
Implications for Small Sellers and Major Platforms
The removal of de minimis benefits is expected to disproportionately affect small and medium-sized online sellers that directly ship from China. These sellers may lack the resources to transition to traditional containerized export models or absorb the 145% tariff.
Large platforms like Temu and Shein have already begun adjusting their operations. Both have announced price increases effective April 25 in response to rising tariffs and stricter trade regulations. Additionally, Temu has reduced U.S. advertising, while both platforms have reported a surge in orders as customers attempt to beat the tariff deadlines.
For smaller e-commerce businesses, new customs clearance requirements pose a significant hurdle. “How comfortable will U.S. consumers be in providing sensitive personal information to facilitate customs declarations for B2C shipments?” Lossing questioned in a LinkedIn post, emphasizing potential declines in consumer trust and cross-border transaction volumes.
Economic and Operational Adjustments
The steep drop in demand for China-U.S. airfreight is likely to accelerate the retirement of older aircraft, reallocate assets to other markets, and lower global freight rates. Lossing forecasts a 30-40% reduction in air freight rates on the trade lane, potentially reducing parcel costs by over $1 per unit.
The European Commission’s potential removal of de minimis exemptions for goods valued under $170, paired with additional customs fees, could exacerbate the challenges faced by e-commerce businesses and air cargo operators globally.
Broader Impacts on E-Commerce Models
Lossing has dismissed arguments that the D2C e-commerce model can remain viable under the new tariff regime. He criticized assertions that deferred tariffs and avoided inventory risks justify maintaining D2C fulfillment from China, stating that such benefits cannot outweigh the financial strain imposed by high tariffs and the elimination of de minimis pathways.
Airlines, logistics providers, and e-commerce platforms are bracing for substantial operational and financial adjustments as they navigate the rapidly changing trade environment.
Aaron Rubin, CEO of ShipHero, highlighted the immediate impact, noting that FedEx has already imposed a 45-cent per pound surcharge on airfreight from China as companies rush to liquidate inventory before the new regulations take effect.
As the U.S. administration considers expanding the removal of de minimis benefits to all countries, the global logistics and e-commerce sectors may face even more profound disruptions.
Source: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/air-cargo-faces-22b-revenue-hit-when-china-tariff-exemption-ends
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