Asia’s airfreight market is entering a period of volatility and urgency. With U.S. tariff suspensions set to expire in July and August, exporters are accelerating shipments in an effort to avoid rising costs. The conclusion of these 90-day tariff exemptions on Chinese-made goods could trigger the sharpest demand surge since the post-pandemic rebound—particularly on Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) trade lanes.
According to C.H. Robinson’s June 2025 Freight Market Update, Chinese exporters are “frontloading shipments” to get ahead of the policy shift. Meanwhile, reciprocal tariffs on goods from other countries will also lapse on July 9, prompting manufacturers to intensify production and logistics activity throughout late June.
Adding to the uncertainty is a May 28 federal court ruling that challenges the U.S. president’s authority to impose tariffs under national emergency declarations. This ruling casts doubt on the continuation of 10% and 20% tariffs currently affecting imports from China and several other nations. Although the decision has been stayed pending appeal, legal ambiguity is accelerating shipper activity ahead of June 9 court arguments and potential Supreme Court review.
The end of the U.S. de minimis rule in May—which previously allowed duty-free e-commerce imports under $800—has also depressed parcel volumes. Airlines scaled back capacity during May but are now cautiously reintroducing it. This fragile supply-demand balance is expected to push rates upward throughout June, particularly for non-priority shipments.
Shippers are being advised to secure capacity two to three weeks in advance and, where possible, leverage alternate routes via Southeast Asia to mitigate congestion and cost exposure. Export rates out of India remain soft, with ample space for U.S.- and EU-bound shipments. Delhi Airport, in particular, continues to provide reliable lift for pharmaceuticals and perishables.
Europe: Stable but Fragile
European lanes are showing rare stability, with outbound capacity to Asia and North America largely balanced. According to C.H. Robinson, demand is expected to remain “stable through June.” However, industries with specialized cargo—such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and aerospace—face potential disruptions.
“Niche sectors may encounter rate pressures and transit constraints,” the update warns, particularly for temperature-sensitive and hazardous goods requiring specialized handling.
On the Europe–Asia corridor, manufacturing pauses during the Dragon Boat Festival briefly softened rates. With production resuming, demand is expected to rebound, particularly through Frankfurt, where lift remains strong. Increased belly capacity may improve rate competitiveness, but routing flexibility will remain critical.
While no immediate tariff or regulatory changes are expected, macroeconomic caution and geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe continue to weigh on shipper sentiment, discouraging long-term commitments. Analysts emphasize the need for agility as summer demand builds toward the third quarter.
North America: Inland Constraints Persist
In North America, capacity remains uneven, with lingering softness in e-commerce volumes and delayed recovery of flows from Asia. While coastal gateways are stabilizing, inland hubs face persistent disruption.
A key issue is equipment imbalance: inland exporters are struggling to secure containers as weak backhaul flows have reduced availability at rail ramps and secondary hubs. C.H. Robinson advises shippers to “monitor equipment availability closely” and consider mode-shifting to airfreight when time-sensitive shipments face inland bottlenecks.
With ocean capacity expected to tighten in Q3 and customs rules continuing to evolve, many shippers are reassessing modal strategies. Airfreight is increasingly viewed as a hedge against longer-term disruptions, especially under conditions of tariff uncertainty.
Non-priority shipments are likely to face delays or higher costs as June progresses. Shippers are encouraged to move urgent cargo via air to stay ahead of quarter-end bottlenecks. While e-commerce volumes have yet to return to early-2024 peaks, airlines are cautiously reintroducing capacity—though the recovery will be uneven across markets.
Outlook: Strategic Foresight Required
June is emerging as a decisive month for global airfreight. Across Asia, Europe, and North America, shippers face a complex mix of legal, economic, and operational challenges that are simultaneously accelerating demand and constraining supply.
From Asia’s tariff-driven frontloading, to Europe’s sector-specific vulnerabilities, to North America’s inland disruptions, the industry faces mounting pressure. As C.H. Robinson concludes:
“Quarter-end demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings. For shippers seeking to stay ahead, the time to act is now.”
Source: https://aircargoweek.com/airfreight-enters-a-summer-of-tight-capacity/
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