Air cargo demand in the Asia Pacific region is showing signs of easing as February approaches. The anticipated pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) surge in tonnage is expected to be limited, with rates on major long-haul lanes likely to remain stable or experience a slight decline.
Dimerco’s February 2026 Asia Pacific Report indicates that demand from Asia to the US and Europe is ""softening as February begins,"" with ""only a modest pre-CNY surge expected."" The report adds that ""a continuous decline in e-commerce volumes since January is likely to extend into February, keeping spot rates to the US and Europe stable or under slight downward pressure.""
However, the report notes that while long-haul conditions may weaken, intra-Asia demand remains firmer. Capacity is expected to tighten on certain regional flows as Chinese New Year draws closer.
Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco, commented: ""Intra-Asia demand is holding up well compared to last year, even if it’s below the Q4 peak. With CNY approaching, we expect space to tighten, particularly on lanes from China to Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Thailand.""
This trend of a softer market is corroborated by pricing data from the TAC Index. In its January 26 briefing, TAC stated that global airfreight rates ""dipped again"" last week. The overall Baltic Air Freight Index was down 3.3% week-on-week as of January 26, and down 6.1% compared to the same period last year. There are currently few signs of the early price spikes some had expected from a pre-CNY rush.
TAC noted a mixed pricing pattern out of China: rates to the US were lower than the previous week but higher to Europe. Meanwhile, rates from Hong Kong continued their downward trend, and Shanghai also saw a slight week-on-week decrease, though it remains in positive growth territory compared to last year. The TAC Index also highlighted that rates were generally weaker across Asia compared to the previous week, with Vietnam being a notable exception, where rates rose week-on-week to both Europe and the US.
However, according to Freightos FAX, on a global scale, the index has risen since January 26, moving from $2.20 to $2.44. The route from Southeast Asia to North America has also seen an increase since January 24, rising from $4.45 to $4.88. Conversely, the route from China to Europe has declined slightly, while the route from Southeast Asia to Europe dropped by $1.00 over the past two days.
The overall picture is that of a market entering February with softer long-haul demand and easing rates. According to data from Rotate, freighter capacity increased by 1% week-on-week as of January 25."
Source: https://theloadstar.com/air-cargo-demand-eases-on-approach-to-cny/
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