Worldwide air cargo markets appear to have broadly stabilized in mid-May after recovering from ‘super golden week’ holidays in East Asia at the start of the month, with capacity continuing to slowly rebuild amid the ongoing highly volatile geopolitical environment.
According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, global air cargo tonnages were flat in week 21 (18 to 24 May), compared with the previous week, with tonnages around +2% higher than the equivalent week last year. With supply chain lead times in the US and Europe at their highest levels for several months, due to war-related shipping disruptions and stockpiling, demand for air cargo remains relatively robust, and tonnages from Asia Pacific in week 21 were well up versus their levels this time last year (+5%).
Despite the continuing disruptions to air cargo capacity to and from the Gulf, chargeable weight from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region rose by +2%, week on week (WoW), although they remain slightly down (-1%), year on year (YoY). On the pricing side, average full market air cargo rates were flat in week 21 at US$3.23 per kilo, although in comparison with the same period last year, restricted capacity, high jet fuel costs, and a greater use of freighter aircraft resulted into a rate increase of +35%.
Average worldwide spot rates edged up in week 21 by a further +1%, WoW, to $3.75 per kilo, driven upwards by increases from Africa (+4%, WoW) and Asia Pacific (+2%, WoW, to $5.16 per kilo), based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. That takes average worldwide spot rates +50% higher YoY, with spot rates from MESA up +59%, YoY, to $4.26 per kilo. Spot rates from most other regions were up by more than +40%, YoY, with the exception of Central & South America (CSA, +18%, YoY).
Slow capacity recovery
Worldwide air cargo capacity increased by around +1%, WoW, in week 21, with freighter capacity stable while passenger capacity recovered further, by +2%, WoW. Capacity to and from MESA experienced the biggest WoW increase in week 21 of any of the main global regions, regaining a further +5%; but compared to pre-war levels in week 7, capacity is down by almost one third (-32%) - largely due to reductions for the Gulf, where capacity is barely half its pre-war levels (-48%). These figures illustrate that it remains a challenge for the Gulf to further scale up air cargo capacity in the current unstable context, despite carriers based outside the region increasing their freighter capacity.
Compared with the same week last year, global air cargo capacity in week 21 this year was around +3% higher. That YoY growth may seem surprising, given the continuing deficit in capacity flown by Gulf carriers and from the Gulf region as a whole. However, the current YoY increase of +3% is less than half of its level of the opening two months of 2026, prior to the US’ and Israel’s war against Iran.
Source: WorldACD Weekly
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