The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has adjusted its outlook for air cargo in 2025, predicting a total of 69 million tonnes of air cargo to be transported during the calendar year.
This projection represents a 0.6% increase compared to 2024 but falls significantly below the previously estimated 72.5 million tonnes.
In 2024, air cargo volumes grew by an impressive 11.3%. However, airlines are expected to see cargo-based revenues decrease by 4.7%, dropping to $142 billion in 2025.
Drivers of Decline
The downward revision reflects concerns over reduced global GDP growth, which is anticipated to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. IATA attributes the sluggish growth to “trade-dampening protectionist measures,” such as tariffs, which continue to pose challenges to global trade flows.
In addition, cargo yield is expected to decline by 5.2%, driven by reduced demand growth and falling oil prices.
Despite these challenges, IATA noted some resilience in the air cargo market, with demand in April 2025 increasing by 5.8% year-on-year.
Navigating Uncertainty
The broader global environment remains uncertain, with conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war exerting significant influence on aviation and airfreight operations. IATA indicated that any resolution or easing of such conflicts would be welcomed by the industry.
A Mixed Outlook for 2025
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, acknowledged the “significant uncertainties” faced by global markets in the first half of 2025.
“By many measures, including net profits, 2025 will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, though slightly below our previous projections,” Walsh explained.
He added, “We anticipate airlines transporting more passengers and cargo in 2025 than in 2024, even if earlier demand projections have been tempered by trade tensions and declining consumer confidence.”
Industry Resilience and Broader Performance
While cargo-related revenues face challenges, the overall airline industry—including passenger services—paints a more positive picture. Falling oil prices are expected to contribute to improved profitability for airlines, even amidst a slowing global economy.
Aircraft Backlog Challenges Persist
IATA highlighted ongoing issues with aircraft manufacturing and delivery schedules. As of 2025, the global backlog of aircraft orders stands at over 17,000, representing a 14-year wait time for delivery.
This year, 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered, the highest annual total since 2018. However, this figure remains 26% below projections made a year ago.
Supply chain disruptions are expected to continue throughout 2025 and possibly into the next decade.
“Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down,” Walsh stated. “The frustration across the industry is palpable. The possibility that these issues could persist until the end of the decade is simply unacceptable,” he emphasized.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/iata-revises-predictions-for-2025-air-cargo-performance-downwards/1080190.article
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