Global air cargo demand continued its upward trajectory in May 2025, demonstrating resilience amid escalating trade tensions, including the imposition of steep U.S. tariffs and the termination of the de minimis exemption for shipments originating from China.
According to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo demand increased by 2.2% year-on-year in May. Cargo capacity grew by 2.0%, while the industry-wide load factor edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 44.5%.
Although growth moderated compared to earlier months, the cumulative demand for the first five months of 2025 remained solid, averaging 3.2% year-on-year.
Mixed Performance Across Trade Lanes
Despite the overall expansion, IATA reported a notable 10.7% year-on-year decline in cargo volumes on the Asia–North America corridor, the industry’s largest trade lane by volume.
This sharp contraction, however, was more than offset by strong performances on other key routes:
In contrast, the Africa–Asia and Asia–North America lanes recorded significant declines, aligning with the impact of recent U.S. trade policy changes.
IATA noted that the “significant decrease” on the Asia–North America route was anticipated, as the effects of front-loading faded and the revised de minimis exemption for small package shipments came into full effect.
“As cargo flows reorganized, several route areas responded with surprising growth,” IATA explained in its report.
Industry Responds to Trade Policy Shifts
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, acknowledged the growing complexity of the current operating environment:
“Air cargo demand globally grew 2.2% in May. That is encouraging news, as a 10.7% drop in traffic on the Asia–North America trade lane illustrated the dampening effect of shifting U.S. trade policies.
Even as these policies evolve, we’re already seeing the air cargo sector’s resilience at work—helping shippers adjust flexibly by holding back, rerouting, or accelerating deliveries.”
In May, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports peaked at 145% before the two governments negotiated a 90-day reduction period to a 30% rate, leading to a brief surge in shipments to capitalize on the temporary relief.
The elimination of the de minimis exemption also introduced substantial cost implications:
30% tariff for shipments by commercial airlines
54% rate or flat $100 fee for parcels shipped via postal networks
E-Commerce Traffic Shifts to Alternative Markets
Data from consultancy Aevean indicated a notable redirection of Chinese e-commerce traffic away from the U.S. to other global destinations in response to the new tariff structure.
Global Trade Indicators Signal Caution
On the macroeconomic front, IATA highlighted continued weakness in global manufacturing activity:
The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in May, indicating contraction.
New export orders remained under pressure at 48, suggesting subdued momentum in global trade.
Regional Airline Performance – May 2025
Asia-Pacific: Registered the strongest growth with an 8.3% year-on-year increase in demand and a 5.7% rise in capacity.
North America: Recorded the steepest decline, with a 5.8% drop in demand and 3.2% decrease in capacity.
Europe: Posted a 1.6% increase in demand, with capacity up 1.5%.
Middle East: Saw 3.6% demand growth, accompanied by a 4.2% increase in capacity.
Latin America: Achieved 3.1% growth in demand, with 3.5% capacity growth.
Africa: Reported a 2.1% decline in demand, despite a 2.7% increase in capacity.
Conclusion
The global air cargo market continues to show resilience in the face of evolving trade dynamics and policy volatility. While challenges remain—particularly on high-volume lanes such as Asia–North America—the industry's ability to adjust rapidly and leverage growth on alternative routes highlights its essential role in maintaining supply chain continuity worldwide.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/iata-cargo-volumes-continue-to-grow-in-may-despite-trade-turmoil/1080314.article
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