News #119 - Air cargo rates hold up well despite transpacific freighter shift

Air cargo rates have shown notable stability following recent market volatility, with the latest data from the TAC Index reporting only a “relatively modest” weekly decline.

According to TAC Index’s most recent update, global airfreight rates fell by just 0.6% last week, and are currently 5.3% lower year-on-year. The platform highlighted that the slight drop in rates occurred despite the recent reallocation of freighter capacity away from transpacific lanes.

“This decline appears relatively modest, particularly considering the significant reduction in freighter services on transpacific routes in recent months,” TAC noted. “This shift has only been partially reversed following the temporary 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, which has led to a more cautious outlook among market participants.”

Interestingly, airfreight rates from China to the US rose slightly compared to the previous week, signaling some market resilience despite regulatory headwinds.

E-commerce Volumes Remain Weak Post De Minimis Removal

Freight forwarder Dimerco reported no visible recovery in e-commerce export volumes from China, following the US government’s recent removal of the de minimis exemption. The exemption had previously allowed packages valued under $800 to enter the US duty-free and with minimal customs clearance.

In the wake of this policy change, packages shipped by air from China are now subject to a 30% tariff, significantly altering shipment economics. The surge in e-commerce demand in recent years had been a major driver for additional freighter capacity across the transpacific corridor.

“Scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled,” Dimerco noted. “However, demand out of Southeast Asia—particularly from Thailand and Vietnam—is beginning to accelerate in anticipation of the upcoming July tariff deadline.”

Capacity Adjustments Show Signs of Stabilization

Data from aviation analytics firm Rotate confirms the realignment of freighter capacity on transpacific routes but also suggests a recent stabilization. Over the past three weeks, widebody freighter capacity from Asia Pacific to North America has averaged between 66,000 and 67,000 tonnes per week.

This is a recovery from the May low of 51,000 tonnes, which followed peak tariff levels of 125%. The lane’s capacity had previously peaked at 75,000 tonnes in mid-March.

Geopolitical Disruption Impacts Routing Efficiency

Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Middle East has introduced new complexities to long-haul cargo operations. Flight diversions over restricted airspace have resulted in significant increases in flight duration on several major trade lanes.

According to Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, flight durations have increased by up to 30 minutes on average, and in some cases by as much as 80 minutes, due to in-air congestion and limited routing options.

“On relatively short sectors, such as between Western Europe and the Gulf, the impact is primarily higher fuel burn,” van Leeuwen explained on LinkedIn.
“But for long-haul operations—for example, between North America and the Gulf—airlines may be forced to reduce cargo payloads to accommodate the additional fuel required.”

Despite these challenges, some carriers are beginning to resume normal operations. Qatar Airways announced yesterday that it had reinstated flights to Iraq and Syria, and had fully resumed its services to Lebanon and Jordan.

Intra-Asia Airfreight Remains Robust

Dimerco also reported strong performance across intra-Asia routes, particularly those connecting China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.

“Capacity on these lanes remains tight, and current rates are higher than during the same period last year,” the company noted.

Conclusion

While global airfreight markets continue to navigate shifting trade policies and geopolitical uncertainties, current trends show remarkable resilience in rates and capacity. Regional shifts in demand—particularly from China to Southeast Asia—are helping to rebalance the network, while operational disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions are being mitigated through route adjustments and strategic planning.

In this evolving landscape, closely tracking capacity shifts, regulatory changes, and regional demand patterns will be essential for logistics professionals seeking to optimize freight strategies in the months ahead.

Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/air-cargo-rates-hold-up-well-despite-transpacific-freighter-shift/1080318.article

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