Airfreight rates across major trade routes originating from Hong Kong experienced only marginal declines in June, reflecting the seasonal downturn typically seen during the summer months, despite ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
According to the latest data from the Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index, which incorporates figures from the TAC Index, average airfreight rates—including both spot and contract rates—from Hong Kong to North America decreased modestly from $5.08 per kg in May to $4.99 per kg in June.
On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 13.2% decrease. However, this decline may be partially attributed to the elevated market conditions during the same period last year, which were influenced by heightened demand and global modal shifts.
A minor reduction in rates between May and June is typical as the industry enters the summer lull and additional bellyhold capacity becomes available due to the uptick in passenger flights during the tourist season.
In contrast, last year’s rates increased in June, driven by a modal shift from ocean to airfreight amid the Red Sea crisis and an uptick in e-commerce demand.
This year, however, demand from China and Hong Kong to North America appears to have been suppressed by several headwinds, including new U.S. tariffs of 30% and the removal of the de minimis exemption for e-commerce shipments. These changes resulted in parcels being taxed at a 30% rate when transported via commercial airlines, directly affecting shipment volumes and price dynamics.
Similarly, rates on the Hong Kong to Europe lane saw a slight dip, falling from $4.39 per kg in May to $4.36 per kg in June, marking a 4.4% decline compared to the same month last year.
Meanwhile, transatlantic rates from Frankfurt to North America continued their downward trend, as increased bellyhold capacity entered the market with the onset of the summer travel season.
In its monthly market update, the TAC Index noted that global airfreight pricing remained largely unaffected by both the U.S. tariffs and the Middle East tensions in June.
“June may have been a tumultuous period in terms of geopolitical developments, but global airfreight rates changed very little during the month,” noted TAC Index Editor Neil Wilson.
During this time, the Middle East experienced considerable flight disruptions due to delays and cancellations. Oil markets also responded sharply, with crude oil prices surging and jet fuel prices increasing nearly 20% month-on-month as of June 20, according to Platts data—before retreating sharply following a ceasefire declaration on June 24.
Wilson reported that the global Baltic Air Freight Index saw only a slight movement, declining 1.1% over the four weeks ending June 30, which brought the index 5.3% lower year-on-year.
He emphasized that this marginal drop was due in part to the fact that major transpacific and transatlantic lanes—which form the core of global airfreight trade—do not transit the Middle East, even though a significant volume of cargo still moves from Asia to the Americas via Middle Eastern carriers.
Regarding the transpacific market, Wilson observed differing sentiments among market participants:
“Some contacts have suggested the outlook might be a little more bearish due to the withdrawal of widebody freighters from transpacific lanes following the U.S.-China trade standoff.”
“Others argue that the market continues to demonstrate a complex and dynamic interaction between supply and demand.”
He explained that freighter-dominated transpacific routes have been adapting quickly to shifts in demand. When demand surged—such as during the lead-up to the announcement of increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods—capacity also rose. Once the tariffs were implemented, airlines promptly scaled back available space.
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/airfreight-rates-on-key-trades-settle-down-for-summer-months/1080336.article
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