The rapid growth in demand for artificial intelligence (AI-related) goods that has consumed air cargo capacity out of Asia has also helped insulate global trade against tariffs and geopolitical issues, the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker has found.
There has been strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, according to the report released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis, highlighted the Globalisation Tracker.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express.
“Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time.
“DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”
Overall, the report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound.
Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.
East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase, stressed the report.
Air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by AI and semiconductor air cargo shipments instead of e-commerce, recent analysis by Dimerco found.
War and tariffs impact
The AI boom may have outweighed geopolitical shocks, but the Middle East conflict and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains and saw airlines pause cargo operations with the cancellation of flights to countries in the region – some of which are yet to be reinstated.
But the effects on trade remained concentrated, according to the Globalisation Tracker. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Likewise, US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August.
Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade, noted Globalisation Tracker.
“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
“The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognise the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient.
“The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries.
“It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/business/2026/10/ai-drives-global-trade-as-well-as-air-cargo/
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