The latest figures released by World ACD Market Data have shown +5 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in global air cargo tonnages in August. This news comes amidst decreasing Hong Kong to Europe volumes of -30 percent YoY and -24 percent compared to two months before in June this year.
The decrease in traffic from Hong Kong to Europe indicate the extent as to which e-commerce stakeholders are recalibrating their use of air logistics to deliver relatively low-value cross-border shipments, since the ending of the EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on import goods with a value of less than €150.
Although total estimated Hong Kong to Europe air cargo tonnages in August were around -7 percent lower than the previous month, on a weekly basis there is also further evidence that the decline has bottomed out, with Hong Kong to Europe volumes in week 35 (24 to 30 August) regaining +3 percent compared with the previous week and +6 percent compared with what now looks like a low recorded in week 33.
Tonnages from mainland China to Europe, which are less dependent on e-commerce traffic, have also rebounded slightly, week on week (WoW), for four consecutive weeks after dropping by a total of around -15 percent in response to the 1 July changes.
China/Hong Kong to Europe vs US
In comparison, combined China/Hong Kong (CN, HK) to US volumes in August were broadly similar to their level in May, June and July, and up +13 percent compared with August last year, with CN-US traffic up +15 percent and HK-US volumes up +9 percent, YoY. But the YoY growth rate of CN/HK to US tonnages, of +13 percent in August and +14 percent in July, has slipped from +19 percent and +20 percent, respectively, in May and June.
On the pricing side there have also been some significant shifts since July. Average spot rates for CN/HK to Europe have slipped from around US$ 5.22 per kilo in May and June to US$ 4.34 per kilo in August, a drop of around -17 percent. And on a YoY basis, the excess this year has fallen from +32 percent in May and +30 percent in June down to just +12 percent in July and +11 percent in August.
For CN/HK to US, average spot rates have fallen from US$6.59 per kilo in June, down to US$5.89 per kilo in August, a drop of around -11 percent. And compared with last year, the excess for this trade lane has narrowed from +50 percent in May and June down to +26 percent, YoY, in August.
Zooming out for a more regional and global picture, worldwide air cargo tonnages in August were up by around +5 percent, YoY, with each of the main worldwide origin regions reporting between +4 percent and +5 percent YoY growth, based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions recorded by WorldACD’s database. This is broadly consistent with the +5 percent, YoY, worldwide tonnage growth recorded in July – and for the first eight months of 2026, although year-to-date (YtD) regional growth rates range from +8 percent for Asia Pacific origins down to stable tonnages ex-Africa, YoY.
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates, based on a mix of spot pricing and contract rates, in August were +22 percent higher, YoY. That compares with +24 percent in July, +33 percent in June, and +37 percent in May. Average worldwide spot rates in August of US$ 3.36 per kilo were up +28 percent, YoY, although they have slipped slightly (-1 percent), compared with their level in July, and they are down by around -9 percent compared with their average level across April, May, and June this year. The biggest change, in percentage terms, is a drop of around -17 percent from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins between their average level in April (US$4.75 per kilo) and August (US$3.92 per kilo). From Asia-Pacific origins, average spot rates have dropped from US$5.03 per kilo in April to US$4.52 per kilo in August, a decline of around -10 percent.
Capacity is slightly on the rise
Total worldwide air cargo capacity rose by a total of +1 percent in the final two weeks compared with its level in the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), with the biggest increase being a +2 percent rise from Asia Pacific origins. Compared with last year, worldwide air cargo capacity is up by +2 percent, YoY.
Despite the disruptions this year triggered by the conflict between the US and Iran, total air cargo capacity from MESA origins in the last two weeks of August was up, YoY, by +2 percent, with capacity stable in week 35 on a WoW and YoY basis.
Nevertheless, compared with its level in week 7, prior to the attack on Iran by the US and Israel, capacity from MESA origins in week 35 was still down by almost -9 percent, with capacity from the Gulf area down by -16 percent, whereas capacity from the surrounding subregions was up, from South Asia by +1 percent, from Central Asia by +2 percent and from the Levant & Caucasus by +8 percent.
Source: https://aircargoweek.com/world-air-cargo-tonnages-up-5-percent-in-august-despite-falling-hong-kong-to-europe-volumes/