Air cargo spot rates are continuing to rise sharply amid the highly volatile, unstable, and fast-changing situation in the Middle East, following the military attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on targets in the region. The latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data highlight that there has been some recovery in air cargo markets since the outbreak of the war, although the situation for carriers, airports, and other stakeholders in the region remains extremely challenging and subject to sudden and rapid change.
According to the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, average global full-market air cargo rates rose by a significant +10%, week on week (WoW), in week 11 (9 to 15 March) to US$2.67 per kilo (including surcharges) after surging +8% the previous week, as carriers, freight forwarders, and cargo owners responded to disrupted markets, constrained air cargo capacity, alternative flight routings, demand backlogs, uncertainty, and higher jet fuel prices.
Worldwide volumes recorded a +4% WoW increase, due to a further post-Lunar New Year recovery (Asia Pacific +5%, WoW) and partially returning volumes from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins (+30%, WoW), although global tonnages were -7% down, year on year (YoY), and the situation in the Middle East remains highly fluid.
Average worldwide spot rates rose by +12%, WoW, to US$3.19 per kilo, taking them +22% higher than in the equivalent week last year. Understandably, the biggest spikes in spot rates occurred from MESA origins, where spot rates spiked by a further +22%, WoW, to $4.37 per kilo, up +58% compared with last year. Although air cargo capacity and traffic recovered significantly compared with the previous week, thanks to the partial reopening of some airports and airspace in the region and alternative routings avoiding restricted areas, air cargo capacity and services to and from the region remain highly constrained, particularly within Gulf countries, and subject to sudden disruptions, delays and backlogs.
The +30% WoW rebound in volumes from MESA origins followed their -33% decline the previous week as capacity from the region collapsed in week 10 (-50%, WoW). As some limited capacity returned last week (+35%, WoW), tonnages from Gulf area countries surged back with a +74% WoW increase after falling -65% the previous week, although they remain around -50% below their pre-war levels (week of 16 to 22 February). Average spot rates from Gulf countries also rose, WoW, by a further +22% to $3.77 per kilo, taking them around +56% higher than their pre-war level.
Tonnages from South Asia origins – normally heavily dependent on capacity from Gulf carriers – also partially rebounded with a +24% WoW rise, although they are still -20% below their pre-war levels. Average spot rates from South Asia also recorded a WoW jump of +24% to $3.54 per kilo, increasing more than +60% in two weeks.
MESA to Europe and US volumes rebound partially
Examining specific markets from that region, MESA to Europe volumes rebounded by +27%, WoW, but they remain -20% below their pre-war levels and -9% below their levels in the same period last year. Tonnages from Dubai recovered strongly, up +67%, WoW, after dropping -39% the previous week, although they are still -30% below their pre-war reference levels. Spot rates from MESA origins to Europe surged further upwards by +21%, WoW, on top of a +60% rise the previous week, taking them +70% above their level last year and almost twice their pre-war level. Spot rates from Dubai rose by a further +9%, WoW, after soaring +90% compared to the previous week, taking them to $3.93 a kilo, more than double their level last year and twice their pre-war level.
It’s a similar picture for MESA origins to the US, with volumes up +22%, WoW – still -20% below their pre-war levels, but only -2% below their equivalent levels last year. Spot rates from MESA origins to the US rose by a further +25%, WoW, on top of a +30% rise the previous week, taking them +50% above last year and over +65% higher than their pre-war. Spot rates from Dubai to the US surged upwards again with a +56% WoW increase to $8.46 per kilo after rising almost +50% the previous week, taking them 2.5 times above last year and above their pre-war levels, respectively.
Highly volatile environment and jet fuel issues
However, underlying the highly volatile environment, since the end of last week there have been further new restrictions on capacity to and from the United Arab Emirates, where only UAE-based carriers are currently permitted to operate flights, after a drone strike on a fuel terminal severely limited jet fuel availability. Meanwhile, the world’s biggest international air cargo carrier, Qatar Airways Cargo, on 19 March announced plans to resume selected freighter operations to and from Doha, where services had been suspended for the previous three weeks, while they continued to operate some limited freighter services outside Doha.
Jet fuel availability and prices have become a major factor in recent weeks, with an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leading to a further +11% WoW rise in jet fuel prices, to almost double (+94%) their pre-war level. This has triggered carriers to implement additional air cargo fuel surcharges, with some also implementing war-risk surcharges, contributing to the rising levels of overall air cargo rates.
Further recovery from Lunar New Year
Elsewhere, tonnages to and from Asia Pacific origins continued to rebound following the end of February’s Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday slowdowns, despite the ongoing loss of some capacity normally operated by the big Gulf carriers. Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins rose by a further +5%, WoW, taking them around +30% higher compared with week 8 (start of LNY) but still -12% below their pre-LNY levels, while spot rates recorded a +9% WoW rise to $3.94 per kilo, taking them +12% higher, YoY.
Asia Pacific to US volumes were slightly up (+3%) after surging +17% the previous week, driven by the post-LNY recovery, including strong WoW increases from China and Hong Kong, taking volumes to levels only slightly (-4%) below their level this time last year. Spot rates also rose strongly, partly due to the impact of the Middle East crisis, with a +8% WoW rise, including increases from all the region’s main origin markets except Japan (-2%).
For Asia Pacific to Europe, volumes were up by a further +5%, WoW, after the previous week’s rise of +17%, also driven by post-LNY recovery. Despite the increase of recent weeks, volumes are -12% below their equivalent levels this time last year, although those comparisons are complicated by the earlier timing of LNY in 2025. Unsurprisingly, spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe are more strongly affected by the Middle East crisis than those on the Asia Pacific to US corridor, recording a +13% WoW increase after rising +12% the previous week. All the major Asia Pacific origins saw rising spot rates to Europe, although the rises from Singapore (+1%) and South Korea (+3%) were less pronounced than for the other major Asia Pacific origin markets.
Source: Worldacd
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