The air cargo industry is taking a wait and see approach to the likely impact of potential new US tariffs and stricter regulatory requirements for e-commerce shipments.
At the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum industry leader session, panellists were asked their opinion on how the possible implementation of stricter tariffs from incoming US president Donald Trump will impact that market.
Tiaca executive director Glynn Hughes pointed out that on the campaign trail, Trump had suggested he would implement tariffs of 60% on all imports from China and 10-20% on goods from other countries.
Meanwhile, there are also expectations that the US will introduce tighter controls on e-commerce goods being imported under the de minimis exemption that means goods worth $800 are not required to pay dues and face less customs scrutiny.
DB Schenker executive vice president global airfreight Asok Kumar said that tariffs would have an impact on the industry, with shippers rushing to move cargo ahead of their implementation.
“I’m not an economist but imposing 20% tariff on goods outside of China and 60% on goods from China, logically it would have an impact,” he said. “It has been done before but we didn’t see the impact as wide ranging as we were expecting so we will have to wait and see.
“What I do think might happen is that there is a possibility that shippers may try to rush goods in advance of any such imposition which means we might have a busy couple of months.
“So far, I haven’t heard anything from our customers about doing that. And as far as de minimis is concerned, the Chinese e-commerce players have consistently said they are prepared for this and they have solutions.
“So the impact of that in terms of e-commerce goods in terms of stifling it, we are preparing for that to not happen.”
Jan Krems, president of United Cargo, said the industry needed to be flexible ahead of any tariffs.
“Goods still have to be made and still have to be shipped to the US. The tariffs and rates, how that will work with e-commerce and on other products, we don’t know, but it will happen for sure, that’s what [Trump] says.
“But we will have to wait and see how much it will be and how it has an effect on us.”
Dirk Goovaerts, global cargo chair of Swissport International, agreed that air cargo needed to be flexible in the face of any changes.
He added that while one market may drop as a result, another could pick up. Meanwhile, there was also the possibility that production could move away from China.
“In our industry we have to be agile and adapt and see the trends relatively quickly and then move on,” he said.
The panellists were also asked how 2024 had been and their outlook for 2025.
Krems said that the year had started better than expected due to modal shift from sea to air caused by issues on the Panama Canal and shipping lines taking longer to reach Europe because of missile attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Looking ahead, he expected a “fantastic” start to 2025 as demand remained strong and the carrier would continue to add services out of China, although United will continue to lag behind the 15 flights per day it offered pre Covid.
Kumar said the year had been busy but the peak hadn’t perhaps lived up to expectations.
“Based on that we were expecting an exceptional peak season, I would call it a busy peak season but not exceptional. Disappointing is a bit too strong to sum up the peak season, but expectations did not come to fruition.”
He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” for 2025 but added that capacity could again be tight.
“When I look at 2025 I’m cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The supply situation will continue to hamper us so let’s see what will happen on the demand side. And if the supply situation continues to hamper us, it could be a tough year ahead in terms of capacity management and yield.”
Source: https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/air-cargos-wait-and-see-approach-to-us-tariffs-and-positive-demand-outlook-for-2025/
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