At the Caspian Air Cargo Summit, Aevean's Marco Bloemen highlighted how air cargo volumes to the US have shifted away from China over the past nine months
Air cargo trade lanes have rapidly shifted this year due to US tariffs and the country's decision to end the de minimis exemption.
Speaking at the Caspian Air Cargo Summit, Marco Bloemen, managing director of consultant Aevean, highlighted how the air cargo market has changed since the start of the year.
One of the most significant changes has been the drop-off in e-commerce volumes from China to the US, caused by the ending of the de minimis exemption for China in May.
As a result, the US has seen its imports of low-value e-commerce goods by air from China drop by around 40% in July compared with April.
While volumes to the US have declined, other locations are seeing a rise in demand as the platforms switch their focus to other countries, Bloemen said.
He pointed out that China's e-commerce volumes to Europe are up from a 21% share in May-July last year to a 27% share of the overall market this year. The US is down from 31% to 15% and 'other' locations increased from a 48% share to a 57% share.
He added that much of the shift to Europe is for transhipment volumes, with the likes of Hungary and Belgium proliferating.
He also said there have been increases in the Middle East and South America.
The US tariffs have also had an impact on air cargo volumes from China to the US, which between April and July have declined by 19% compared with a year ago.
In contrast, volumes to the US from other locations have risen rapidly, led by Taiwan and Vietnam.
Bloemen said that April-July volumes from Taiwan have increased by around 119% yearly, with volumes of computer hardware and network equipment fuelling the increase.
This increase translates to around 720 extra widebody freighter flights over the four months.
Meanwhile, volumes from Vietnam over the period are up by around 93% year on year, led by laptops and clothing. This increase translates to an extra 610 widebody freighters.
Vietnam has now overtaken China as the US's largest trading partner for laptops.
"Right now we are seeing Vietnam go up, and Taiwan go up on the same lane," he said.
"Taiwan is computer equipment, data racks, and equipment for data centres; it is booming - phenomenal growth rates from Taiwan into the US."
On the smartphone front, India is now the largest exporter of the devices to the US, having overtaken China in April.
Over the period, other fast-growing markets in the US included Italy and France, as companies frontloaded high-end fashion items to import them before the tariffs were implemented.
Reflecting these developments is airline cargo capacity deployment, he said.
Bloemen pointed out that service capacity from Asia to Europe and the Middle East has increased by double-digit percentages year on year, while transpacific and transatlantic capacity is flat.
Bloemen explained that shifts in trade also help to extend yield imbalances.
"From Asia to Europe, back in 2023, there was 1.2 times more flying from Asia to Europe than on the way back, and then the yield was 1.6 times as much.
"Fast forward to 2025, the weight discrepancy has increased [to 1.3], but the yield discrepancy is going super fast, and it is now roughly 2.6 times as much that you have to pay from Asia to Europe as on the way back. And the transpacific is a similar story."
However, Bloemen also pointed out that total airfreight volumes had increased by 5.2% year on year for the year to date, thanks to front loading and an 18% increase in e-commerce demand.
Capacity shortages ahead
Bloemen also reiterated a concern expressed by Atlas Air's Martin Drew in an earlier session: there could be a shortage of widebody freighter capacity in the future.
He pointed out that overall cargo capacity had not grown since 2019 due to a 3% decline in belly capacity following COVID and only a 3% increase in freighter capacity.
And the situation doesn't seem likely to improve this year due to aircraft deliveries slowing since COVID.
Bloemen said that in 2019, 343 widebody passenger aircraft were delivered along with 55 freighters.
Last year, these numbers had shrunk to 139 widebody passenger aircraft and 29 freighters. Meanwhile, the first half of this year has seen 68 widebody passenger units delivered and 27 freighters.
“We are going to see a shortage of capacity in the years to come,” he said.
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